NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	89		Excitement	7.3 [286]		MVP	Gerald Henderson (CHA): +23.4%
Orlando Magic	96		Comeback	2.4 [486]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (CHA): -27.9%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Henderson	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.24,0.23	0.14	0.13	0.04	10	73%	0.25	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.02
Bismack Biyombo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	5	92%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	8	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Byron Mullens	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.06	-0.07	10	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Cory Higgins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	13	58%	0.04	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Brown	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28	-0.14	-0.13	0.01	12	52%	0.01	8	-0.29	1	0%	-0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.13	0.02	8	75%	0.23	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.01	18	57%	0.18	4	-0.09	8	37%	-0.07
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	8	72%	0.18	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.02	13	43%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0	0.00	0.07	-0.01	0.06	8	74%	0.12	3	-0.12	7	86%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	9	28%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	9	32%	-0.07	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	0.8	29.2	15.4	25.3	2.5	37.3	135.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +29.3%

ORL +2.1%

ORL +21.2%

CHA -2.0%

CHA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	ORL	NBA	CHA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	15.6	93.7	101.1	102.8
season	16.3	16.2		94.1	102.8
opponent	15.8	15.0		103.0	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.5	16.4	14.7	16.0	15.4
ORL	13.7	14.9	16.0	15.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Higgins	20	20	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-10	13	15.2	15.5	-0.25	16.6	14.5	2.13
Boris Diaw	46	45	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-13	19	15.8	15.0	0.74	16.1	13.8	2.27
Matt Carroll	4	4	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-4	1	16.5	15.4	1.15	15.0	14.9	0.09
Byron Mullens	47	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-1	-5	14.6	16.2	-1.55	14.5	15.3	-0.80
Kemba Walker	77	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-9	11	15.0	16.9	-1.91	14.2	17.8	-3.53
Bismack Biyombo	40	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-8	9	16.7	14.5	2.20	15.8	14.3	1.46
Gerald Henderson	77	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-10	13	15.0	16.9	-1.91	14.5	16.9	-2.47
Derrick Brown	26	25	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	6	-19	16.5	15.0	1.51	17.2	14.1	3.15
Tyrus Thomas	57	58	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	8	-23	14.8	16.2	-1.39	13.7	16.8	-3.02
D.J. Augustin	81	81	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.21	-13	6	-19	15.7	13.5	2.23	14.8	15.4	-0.52

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	77	78	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.12	21	-14	35	14.9	15.1	-0.17	15.6	14.4	1.28
Von Wafer	45	47	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-2	11	15.3	14.6	0.71	16.1	14.7	1.40
Hedo Turkoglu	51	51	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-5	17	14.4	15.5	-1.05	15.9	14.8	1.17
Chris Duhon	32	31	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.09	8	-1	9	17.0	13.9	3.14	15.6	15.3	0.36
Jameer Nelson	63	64	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	8	-9	13.9	17.0	-3.14	15.3	15.6	-0.36
Glen Davis	56	58	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.23	-2	9	-11	15.3	14.3	0.99	15.5	15.2	0.26
Ryan Anderson	57	54	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.24	-5	12	-17	14.6	15.4	-0.89	15.0	16.0	-1.01
Quentin Richardson	31	29	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	9	-11	16.2	14.3	1.94	15.4	15.4	0.02
JJ Redick	63	63	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	12	-17	14.4	15.9	-1.54	14.4	17.3	-2.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, DET 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.54,0.66,0.81,0.72,0.83,0.99,1	93.4%
DET 94, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.84,1,1	93.3%
UTA 111, ATL 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.78,0.86,0.96,1,0.99,1	93.0%