NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	92		Excitement	7.4 [332]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +39.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	99		Comeback	12.1 [116]		LVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): -20.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Lee	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28	0.15	0.13	0.00	11	79%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marc Gasol	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.07,0,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.02	0.07	0.01	16	52%	0.17	2	-0.10	8	87%	0.06
Tony Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	35%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Calathes	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	0.03	-0.12	0.02	10	60%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.12,-0.2	-0.16	-0.05	-0.02	20	30%	-0.12	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.34,0.4	0.40	0.12	0.30	0.02	23	60%	0.46	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.09
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.07	0.29	0.00	12	75%	0.44	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.00	0.00	6	108%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	22	36%	-0.14	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	13	37%	-0.09	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	3.4	28.4	17.4	25.4	3.4	37.7	138.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +17.7%

POR +17.4%

POR +14.3%

POR +2.1%

MEM -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	POR	NBA	MEM	POR	NBA
this game	17.4	14.3	15.1	101.1	108.8	104.2
season	15.9	15.3		103.8	106.5
opponent	15.0	15.2		102.7	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.5	18.7	16.7	17.8	17.4
POR	14.1	15.7	14.6	12.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Calathes	45	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.35	9	-16	25	17.2	17.5	-0.32	14.7	13.8	0.87
Kosta Koufos	24	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.11	-7	0	-7	16.9	17.5	-0.61	14.9	14.1	0.78
Vince Carter	17	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-1	-5	15.9	17.7	-1.82	14.6	14.2	0.34
Tony Allen	60	61	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.43	10	-17	27	18.0	16.1	1.87	15.4	12.1	3.31
Jon Leuer	5	4	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-1	-5	19.2	17.3	1.94	12.2	14.4	-2.13
Courtney Lee	73	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.31	-2	-5	3	16.9	19.2	-2.25	13.5	17.6	-4.08
Beno Udrih	44	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	6	-19	18.2	16.6	1.54	14.5	14.1	0.34
Marc Gasol	78	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-6	5	17.4	17.3	0.06	14.0	16.2	-2.26
Jeff Green	42	42	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.17	-19	12	-31	16.9	17.7	-0.81	14.1	14.4	-0.35
Zach Randolph	67	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-7	7	17.5	16.9	0.61	14.1	14.9	-0.78

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	64	65	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.25	23	-16	39	13.8	15.3	-1.49	18.0	15.7	2.39
Meyers Leonard	64	65	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.25	23	-16	39	13.8	15.3	-1.49	18.0	15.7	2.39
LaMarcus Aldridge	75	75	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-1	9	14.3	14.2	0.12	17.5	16.6	0.97
Nicolas Batum	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-3	13	13.8	18.3	-4.51	17.4	16.7	0.74
Damian Lillard	75	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.30	9	-2	11	13.7	16.8	-3.07	17.1	18.9	-1.80
Steve Blake	16	15	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	9	-11	16.8	13.7	3.07	18.9	17.1	1.80
Arron Afflalo	37	36	-0.48	0.98	-1.47	0.07	-19	26	-45	16.1	13.0	3.12	15.9	18.3	-2.35
Robin Lopez	43	42	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	-0.02	-17	24	-41	14.9	13.7	1.18	16.0	18.5	-2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.33,0.52,0.28,0.33,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 91, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.21,0.32,0.85,1	90.6%
DET 101, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.1,0.19,0.33,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.84,1	90.0%
NJN 118, GSW 124	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.62,0.46,0.45,0.91,1	89.8%