NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	91		Excitement	8.5 [201]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +41.4%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	15.1 [143]		LVP	Nicolas Batum (CHA): -36.3%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.07	0.01	16	51%	0.11	0	0.00	7	86%	0.05
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	8	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Treveon Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant III	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.06	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Kemba Walker	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.04,0.04,0,-0.08,-0.06	0.09	-0.14	0.01	22	52%	-0.04	1	-0.02	14	71%	-0.07
Marvin Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	5	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Monk	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.36,-0.36	-0.12	-0.25	-0.00	13	30%	-0.14	2	-0.22	4	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.11	0.32	0.01	13	61%	0.41	0	0.00	5	100%	0.06
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.10	0.01	11	67%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.00	14	59%	0.16	1	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	6	37%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.08	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	13	38%	0.02	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	29.0	10.8	27.0	0.6	31.4	126.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +89.5%

CHA -17.4%

CHA -15.0%

CHA -12.1%

MIA +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	14.7	96.8	102.2	107.5
season	14.6	15.1		108.7	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.5		105.8	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.4	15.1	14.3	17.9	15.6
MIA	15.9	14.3	15.7	14.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	48	46	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.48	15	-19	34	15.3	16.0	-0.73	16.2	14.2	2.03
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	53	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.53	14	-18	32	15.2	16.1	-0.92	15.8	14.4	1.40
Nicolas Batum	65	64	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.53	13	-17	30	15.1	16.8	-1.64	16.0	13.3	2.66
Malik Monk	15	15	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	6	-16	16.1	15.5	0.52	13.3	15.5	-2.27
Dwight Howard	72	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.50	9	-13	22	15.3	16.6	-1.32	16.0	12.5	3.52
Johnny O'Bryant III	22	23	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.12	-13	9	-22	16.6	15.3	1.32	12.5	16.0	-3.52
Kemba Walker	79	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.45	6	-10	16	15.5	16.1	-0.52	15.5	13.3	2.27
Treveon Graham	32	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.15	-17	13	-30	15.9	15.5	0.42	13.2	16.2	-2.98
Jeremy Lamb	41	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	14	-32	16.1	15.2	0.92	14.4	15.8	-1.40
Frank Kaminsky	43	44	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.10	-19	15	-34	16.6	14.8	1.76	14.3	15.9	-1.62

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	58	59	1.10	-0.60	1.70	0.37	25	-21	46	14.6	16.1	-1.51	16.4	14.4	1.96
Wayne Ellington	69	68	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.29	17	-13	30	14.6	16.7	-2.07	15.9	14.9	1.03
Bam Adebayo	50	48	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.33	13	-9	22	14.9	15.5	-0.63	16.6	14.7	1.91
Kelly Olynyk	36	39	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.08	18	-14	32	14.6	15.6	-1.01	16.1	15.3	0.77
Josh Richardson	66	65	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.39	0	4	-4	15.4	14.5	0.92	15.6	15.7	-0.04
James Johnson	63	63	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.50	-8	12	-20	15.4	14.7	0.65	15.6	15.7	-0.17
Tyler Johnson	40	43	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.06	-8	12	-20	15.5	14.9	0.66	15.3	15.9	-0.51
Hassan Whiteside	37	38	-0.41	0.91	-1.33	0.03	-15	19	-34	15.8	14.7	1.06	14.1	16.7	-2.60
Goran Dragic	46	47	-0.61	1.11	-1.73	0.03	-22	26	-48	16.0	14.4	1.60	14.6	16.7	-2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.21,0.32,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.33,0.52,0.28,0.33,0.84,1	90.6%
UTA 114, ATL 117	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.45,0.35,0.24,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.1,0.25,0.54,0.45,0.91,1	88.6%
MIN 110, SAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.41,0.35,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.67,0.98,1	87.9%