NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	108		Excitement	5.6 [689]		MVP	Jason Terry (HOU): +13.9%
Houston Rockets	118		Comeback	1.3 [905]		LVP	Josh Smith (HOU): -12.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	14	77%	0.22	6	-0.14	3	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	9	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	16	42%	0.03	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	61%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.07	3	100%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	16	47%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	12	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.03
Chandler Parsons	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	15	33%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.03	-0.02	10	80%	0.16	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.03	6	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Terrence Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.04	15	46%	0.07	0	0.00	11	64%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.02	11	60%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.03	0.03	11	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	17	88%	0.05
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	9	55%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	5	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	-0.00	-0.03	14	34%	-0.04	4	-0.08	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.2	3.4	33.2	16.4	25.8	2.7	37.7	150.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +26.7%

HOU +10.5%

DAL -2.3%

HOU +10.0%

HOU +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.1	12.6	15.1	100.0	109.3	104.2
season	14.6	14.3		107.6	105.6
opponent	14.9	15.0		103.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.2	12.3	15.2	13.6	14.1
HOU	10.5	13.9	12.5	13.6	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	9	9	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.04	4	-14	18	11.6	14.3	-2.74	15.0	12.4	2.62
Amar'e Stoudemire	33	34	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.19	7	-17	24	15.7	13.4	2.31	13.4	12.2	1.14
Devin Harris	22	21	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-14	18	15.9	13.6	2.32	11.0	13.0	-2.05
Jose Juan Barea	46	46	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.37	12	-22	34	14.3	13.9	0.49	13.8	11.7	2.13
Al-Farouq Aminu	40	41	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-13	16	15.4	13.3	2.08	12.7	12.5	0.17
Charlie Villanueva	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-8	6	9.9	14.4	-4.50	4.4	13.2	-8.74
Dirk Nowitzki	77	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	-4	-2	13.8	14.8	-1.04	12.7	12.3	0.39
Monta Ellis	87	90	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	2	-14	13.5	16.4	-2.93	12.7	12.1	0.66
Tyson Chandler	71	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.02	-18	8	-26	13.6	14.9	-1.30	12.8	12.2	0.58
Chandler Parsons	85	84	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.06	-17	7	-24	14.1	14.1	-0.03	12.2	13.9	-1.69
Rajon Rondo	63	62	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.15	-25	15	-40	14.0	14.1	-0.08	12.3	13.0	-0.69

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	90	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-5	20	12.2	14.8	-2.68	13.7	15.6	-1.84
Trevor Ariza	88	87	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	3	4	12.8	11.8	0.92	13.5	16.3	-2.76
Jason Terry	62	58	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.05	15	-5	20	12.3	13.0	-0.73	13.4	14.8	-1.33
Dwight Howard	39	43	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	-2	14	11.9	13.0	-1.14	14.7	13.6	1.09
Terrence Jones	77	75	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	2	6	13.2	11.0	2.20	13.5	15.4	-1.91
Josh Smith	57	58	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.22	3	7	-4	12.0	13.3	-1.24	14.5	13.6	0.87
Corey Brewer	51	53	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	10	-10	12.6	12.6	-0.03	14.4	13.8	0.58
Pablo Prigioni	42	44	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	16	-22	13.8	11.8	1.98	15.6	13.0	2.61
Clint Capela	34	33	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.10	-4	14	-18	12.8	12.5	0.32	14.7	13.8	0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.95,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 102, SEA 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.82,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.9,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%
HOU 98, LAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.71,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.7,0.68,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.91,0.84,0.92,0.97,0.93,1,1,1,1,1	93.0%
SAS 103, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.61,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1	92.8%