NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	93		Excitement	7.7 [289]		MVP	Paul Pierce (WAS): +26.1%
Toronto Raptors	86		Comeback	2.0 [346]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -34.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.17	0.10	0.01	10	91%	0.29	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	13	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.09
Rasual Butler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bradley Beal	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.19	0.06	-0.05	23	31%	-0.03	4	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Drew Gooden	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.18,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29,-0.28	-0.13	-0.15	0.01	18	28%	-0.26	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.05	0.21	0.02	6	83%	0.28	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	12	67%	0.14	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.04	-0.02	8	62%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	16	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	11	27%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.04	-0.03	10	29%	-0.08	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.14	-0.17	0.03	20	33%	-0.24	3	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.4	3.4	28.5	17.3	23.6	3.3	40.6	1.7	20.2	165.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +11.5%

TOR -6.1%

WAS +29.8%

WAS +11.4%

WAS +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	TOR	NBA	WAS	TOR	NBA
this game	17.2	15.3	15.1	94.9	87.8	104.2
season	15.1	15.6		102.9	109.1
opponent	15.0	15.3		106.8	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
WAS	14.2	18.1	15.7	20.2	19.8	17.2
TOR	14.0	17.0	17.8	12.5	15.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	39	40	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.35	10	-3	13	17.0	17.3	-0.29	16.1	14.7	1.39
Bradley Beal	86	87	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	-1	9	17.8	12.7	5.04	15.6	12.4	3.28
Paul Pierce	66	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	1	5	18.0	15.5	2.53	15.4	15.0	0.46
John Wall	79	80	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	1	5	17.2	17.0	0.22	15.4	14.8	0.61
Drew Gooden	45	44	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	3	1	16.2	18.0	-1.72	15.0	15.5	-0.42
Otto Porter	61	60	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.08	2	5	-3	17.6	16.5	1.02	14.9	15.8	-0.84
Ramon Sessions	35	34	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	4	-1	14.7	18.5	-3.83	13.6	16.1	-2.49
Kevin Seraphin	33	32	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.23	-6	13	-19	16.1	17.7	-1.63	13.9	16.0	-2.08
Marcin Gortat	46	47	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.16	2	5	-3	18.0	16.5	1.48	16.3	14.4	1.88

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	47	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-6	5	15.4	15.2	0.25	16.3	17.9	-1.64
Greivis Vasquez	56	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-7	7	14.2	16.7	-2.43	18.5	15.4	3.05
Tyler Hansbrough	24	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	-1	-5	16.6	14.8	1.79	15.9	17.6	-1.70
Lou Williams	58	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.29	1	-8	9	14.7	16.1	-1.44	18.1	15.8	2.30
Patrick Patterson	59	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-2	-3	14.7	16.1	-1.33	17.7	16.3	1.36
Kyle Lowry	65	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	2	-11	15.7	14.5	1.15	15.8	20.0	-4.22
Terrence Ross	44	43	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	5	-17	15.8	14.9	0.94	15.1	18.8	-3.71
Amir Johnson	60	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-6	5	15.5	14.8	0.71	18.1	15.8	2.30
DeMar DeRozan	77	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-5	3	15.5	14.3	1.26	17.7	15.4	2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.46,0.24,0.29,0.05,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 110, IND 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.15,0.46,0.46,0.21,0.09,0,0	89.9%
HOU 116, DEN 115	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.61,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.33,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.46,0.31,0.54,0.15,0.17,0	89.4%
MIA 93, SAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.46,0.31,0.15,0.08,0.08,0	89.3%