NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	8.5 [203]		MVP	Brad Miller (SAC): +22.6%
Sacramento Kings	91		Comeback	1.6 [358]		LVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): -19.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	9	61%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	9	61%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	6	42%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	27	51%	0.04	3	-0.07	9	67%	-0.03
Alonzo Mourning	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.11	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.04
Dorell Wright	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Udonis Haslem	-0.19	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	7	31%	-0.03	4	-0.16	2	50%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23	0.23	-0.03	0.25	-0.00	14	47%	0.31	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.11
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	2	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	13	35%	-0.03	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	13	50%	-0.02	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	15	36%	-0.12	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,-0.2	-0.20	0.04	-0.21	0.03	15	51%	-0.16	1	-0.04	9	89%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.4	3.5	30.9	19.7	25.5	3.5	40.5	2.5	16.2	167.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +73.8%

SAC -41.4%

MIA +25.0%

SAC -14.7%

MIA +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	15.9	14.5	15.4	88.6	87.5	104.5
season	16.0	14.7		102.4	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.6		106.0	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	14.1	17.0	15.6	17.7	14.3	15.9
SAC	15.2	17.3	13.7	13.6	11.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	26	26	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.57	1	1	0	15.7	15.9	-0.19	12.7	15.2	-2.42
Dwyane Wade	89	87	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.46	4	-2	6	15.8	16.2	-0.44	14.1	16.9	-2.86
Jason Kapono	41	41	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.35	5	-3	8	15.7	16.0	-0.24	15.2	14.1	1.03
Udonis Haslem	85	83	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	3	-4	15.2	18.5	-3.30	13.8	17.3	-3.49
Antoine Walker	30	31	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.01	10	-8	18	17.8	15.1	2.74	17.1	13.5	3.68
Jason Williams	65	63	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.37	-3	5	-8	15.0	17.3	-2.38	13.6	16.0	-2.48
Dorell Wright	31	32	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	-1	4	14.3	16.5	-2.20	14.7	14.5	0.16
James Posey	44	45	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	3	-4	17.4	14.8	2.64	15.2	14.1	1.07
Gary Payton	45	45	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.09	1	1	0	17.0	15.0	2.01	15.3	14.0	1.35
Alonzo Mourning	69	67	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.05	-9	11	-20	15.9	15.9	-0.06	15.1	13.5	1.56

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	9	8	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-4	6	14.9	14.5	0.37	18.5	15.7	2.84
Ronnie Price	21	22	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-5	8	16.2	14.1	2.06	16.7	15.7	1.02
Kevin Martin	86	88	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.45	8	-10	18	14.8	13.3	1.47	16.1	14.8	1.26
Kenny Thomas	57	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.02	-9	7	-16	15.4	13.5	1.89	15.2	16.6	-1.42
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	36	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	6	-14	15.4	14.1	1.24	17.4	15.1	2.26
Metta World Peace	65	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	1	-4	14.1	15.3	-1.13	16.1	15.6	0.50
John Salmons	77	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	0	-2	13.8	16.8	-3.06	15.2	18.0	-2.81
Brad Miller	86	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.58	4	-6	10	14.4	15.3	-0.95	15.7	16.5	-0.78
Mike Bibby	83	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	3	-8	14.1	16.2	-2.06	15.7	16.7	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.46,0.31,0.15,0.08,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 101, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.46,0.31,0.15,0.23,0.27,0	91.2%
LAL 123, LAC 120	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.19,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.46,0.39,0.22,0.22,0.28,0	90.7%
DAL 107, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.46,0.25,0.45,0.43,0.08,0	90.4%