NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	6.6 [493]		MVP	Norris Cole (MIA): +18.5%
Indiana Pacers	83		Comeback	2.9 [473]		LVP	David West (IND): -17.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Norris Cole	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.08	0.00	4	92%	0.19	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Bosh	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.06	-0.02	9	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,-0.04,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.10	0.00	18	52%	0.22	3	-0.13	6	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.09	0.06	0.07	0.04	16	64%	0.17	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	5	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.09	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.05	0.04	17	64%	0.17	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.03
George Hill	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.02	0.04	9	72%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	60%	0.08	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.02	-0.00	16	37%	0.03	3	-0.11	6	67%	0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	16	31%	-0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	3.5	33.7	18.0	24.2	3.3	41.3	150.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +53.1%

MIA +0.4%

MIA +3.9%

IND -5.2%

IND -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.3	18.7	15.1	104.8	101.2	105.2
season	15.6	15.8		109.7	102.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		99.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	14.9	17.2	16.9	16.3
IND	18.1	20.4	17.9	18.3	18.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	48	48	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.16	25	-21	46	16.6	15.8	0.83	19.4	17.7	1.65
Norris Cole	45	43	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.33	14	-10	24	16.1	16.4	-0.26	20.0	17.2	2.89
LeBron James	74	73	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.45	4	0	4	15.9	19.1	-3.21	18.3	21.7	-3.37
Chris Bosh	59	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.49	-4	8	-12	16.4	15.8	0.59	18.8	18.3	0.51
Dwyane Wade	60	59	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.46	-5	9	-14	16.2	16.3	-0.13	18.0	20.4	-2.39
Shane Battier	15	13	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	0	4	15.2	16.5	-1.29	18.1	18.8	-0.71
Ray Allen	41	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.32	16	-12	28	15.9	16.6	-0.64	19.0	18.3	0.66
Mario Chalmers	41	42	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.07	-14	18	-32	16.4	16.1	0.37	18.0	19.4	-1.37
Udonis Haslem	32	32	-0.41	0.91	-1.33	0.17	-20	24	-44	17.1	15.7	1.42	18.3	18.9	-0.59

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ian Mahinmi	11	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.10	-8	4	-12	20.9	18.3	2.59	14.1	16.5	-2.45
David West	58	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.33	6	-10	16	18.8	18.3	0.54	16.4	16.0	0.36
Rasual Butler	14	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	0	-4	18.6	18.7	-0.03	12.7	17.2	-4.46
CJ Watson	22	21	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.18	-13	9	-22	19.4	18.4	0.95	16.6	16.1	0.49
Luis Scola	18	18	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	2	-8	18.9	18.6	0.35	17.5	15.9	1.59
George Hill	69	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-7	10	18.5	19.8	-1.31	15.9	17.9	-1.93
Roy Hibbert	69	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.43	3	-7	10	18.6	18.9	-0.30	17.2	11.2	6.05
Paul George	75	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-3	2	18.3	22.1	-3.80	16.1	17.9	-1.79
Lance Stephenson	74	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.49	0	-4	4	18.5	20.1	-1.61	16.4	14.1	2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.38,0.1,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 103, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.5,0.43,0.29,0.48,0.53,0.69,0.53,0.53,0.25,0.05,0.02,0.02,0	92.7%
MIL 108, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.21,0.09,0.09,0	92.5%
CLE 106, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.38,0.21,0.06,0.05,0	91.6%