NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	89		Excitement	3.2 [1142]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (WAS): +24.9%
Washington Wizards	98		Comeback	1.0 [892]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -13.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.21	0.00	0.08	16	82%	0.17	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	9	48%	0.03	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	0.00	0.03	10	38%	-0.05	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.02	-0.03	12	29%	-0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.25	0.02	0.02	17	77%	0.25	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.07	0.02	-0.12	18	39%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	10	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	13	64%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	15	39%	0.01	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.4	31.5	17.8	32.2	3.5	32.3	150.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +30.6%

WAS +2.4%

CHI -5.3%

WAS +17.7%

WAS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	16.8	16.7	15.1	103.5	114.0	105.2
season	16.3	15.1		101.1	103.8
opponent	15.5	15.3		102.7	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	18.1	16.3	17.9	14.7	16.8
WAS	14.6	15.7	14.9	22.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Snell	26	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-8	7	15.0	17.6	-2.64	17.1	16.5	0.61
D.J. Augustin	37	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.35	9	-18	27	15.5	17.8	-2.26	18.9	14.9	3.96
Taj Gibson	57	57	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-14	19	15.8	18.7	-2.90	17.8	14.4	3.38
Carlos Boozer	44	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.13	-15	6	-21	18.0	15.6	2.41	14.7	18.7	-3.96
Kirk Hinrich	64	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	-3	-3	16.8	16.7	0.16	16.6	16.9	-0.30
Mike Dunleavy	65	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.10	-18	9	-27	17.7	14.0	3.71	15.4	20.5	-5.08
Joakim Noah	71	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	-1	-7	16.9	16.5	0.33	17.0	15.3	1.64
Jimmy Butler	66	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	2	-13	17.3	15.1	2.22	16.5	17.1	-0.60

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	64	65	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.14	24	-15	39	16.1	18.4	-2.32	17.6	14.4	3.20
Bradley Beal	70	70	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	0	9	17.0	15.4	1.53	17.2	15.2	1.91
John Wall	70	70	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	1	7	16.2	18.7	-2.54	16.9	16.5	0.37
Trevor Ariza	68	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-3	15	16.0	19.1	-3.07	17.1	15.8	1.23
Trevor Booker	47	49	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	9	-9	16.6	16.8	-0.15	18.1	15.1	2.93
Drew Gooden	48	45	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	12	-15	17.7	15.4	2.22	15.8	18.0	-2.20
Martell Webster	34	35	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	9	-9	17.4	16.2	1.15	15.1	17.9	-2.80
Andre Miller	16	16	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.03	1	8	-7	18.7	16.2	2.54	16.5	16.9	-0.37
Kevin Seraphin	2	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	11	-13	19.0	16.6	2.37	8.0	16.9	-8.91
Al Harrington	11	11	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	13	-17	15.7	16.8	-1.10	13.1	17.3	-4.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 106, TOR 127	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.68,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
SEA 76, SAS 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
LAL 111, CLE 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.9%