NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	10.9 [41]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +29.3%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	139.8 [12]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -58.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.24,0.24	0.16	0.11	0.03	14	69%	0.24	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Tiago Splitter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	83%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Gary Neal	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.13	-0.15	0.03	21	64%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	7	21%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.07,-0.04,-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	23	36%	-0.17	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.59	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.59	-0.14	-0.45	-0.00	5	56%	0.10	8	-0.69	6	67%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.29	0.29	-0.02	0.36	0.04	8	50%	0.34	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.01	4	100%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.00	0.00	4	112%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.04	0.01	12	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.05
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.11	-0.14	0.02	11	83%	0.18	3	-0.22	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	15	44%	0.02	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.05
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.12,-0.38	-0.38	-0.07	-0.30	0.02	26	50%	0.09	6	-0.48	12	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.5	3.0	31.0	17.0	35.1	3.6	43.3	2.5	18.6	181.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +85.4%

SAS -5.4%

SAS -38.1%

MIA +6.6%

MIA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	16.8	15.4	102.0	106.2	104.1
season	15.2	15.7		106.4	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.1		102.4	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.4	16.9	16.2	15.8	13.6	15.8
MIA	16.6	17.4	16.5	17.0	16.4	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	82	81	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.24	16	-19	35	16.0	14.7	1.27	16.9	16.5	0.36
Matt Bonner	1	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-3	3	10.0	15.9	-5.88	0.0	17.0	-16.98
Gary Neal	44	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	2	-7	16.9	14.9	2.02	16.7	16.9	-0.16
Kawhi Leonard	85	83	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.44	11	-14	25	15.7	16.5	-0.74	16.9	16.4	0.44
Tony Parker	77	80	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.40	8	-11	19	16.2	14.5	1.71	16.9	16.5	0.33
Boris Diaw	45	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-4	5	14.6	16.9	-2.29	17.0	16.6	0.43
Tiago Splitter	14	15	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.01	-13	10	-23	16.4	15.7	0.71	16.7	16.8	-0.16
Manu Ginobili	66	64	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.17	-21	18	-39	15.2	17.1	-1.90	16.9	16.6	0.30
Danny Green	76	77	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.47	-12	9	-21	15.9	15.5	0.47	16.7	17.2	-0.56

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	80	81	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.48	13	-10	23	17.0	15.7	1.33	15.5	17.2	-1.72
Mike Miller	50	54	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.19	15	-12	27	17.0	16.6	0.49	17.8	13.4	4.41
Ray Allen	74	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	-1	5	16.7	17.0	-0.31	15.5	17.0	-1.55
LeBron James	91	91	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.45	-1	4	-5	16.8	17.3	-0.56	15.8	15.9	-0.04
Chris Andersen	25	26	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	-1	5	17.0	16.7	0.26	16.2	15.7	0.46
Chris Bosh	72	71	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.27	-3	6	-9	16.7	17.0	-0.26	15.9	15.6	0.31
Shane Battier	25	25	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.10	-2	5	-7	16.7	16.8	-0.11	13.6	16.6	-3.03
Dwyane Wade	68	67	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.28	-15	18	-33	16.5	17.5	-0.97	15.6	16.3	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.32,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.1,0.13,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.42,0.54,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 115, BKN 120	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.75,0.81,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.34,0.84,0.5,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.72,1	88.3%
VAN 108, CLE 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.18,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.51,0.39,0.61,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.29,0.55,0.58,1	88.1%
DET 85, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.34,0.4,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.69,0.74,1	87.9%