NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	5.9 [607]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +19.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	77		Comeback	1.0 [1189]		LVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): -12.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.01	10	73%	0.22	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	9	65%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
LeBron James	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.04	20	64%	0.20	5	-0.14	7	57%	-0.05
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	5	30%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	6	25%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Rashard Lewis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.03	0.03	9	74%	0.15	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	11	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	45%	-0.01	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	20	50%	0.13	6	-0.18	2	0%	-0.05
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	21%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	9	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	13	30%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.0	33.2	17.7	26.2	3.5	29.3	141.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +51.2%

MIL -4.1%

MIL -0.9%

MIA +1.3%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	17.2	16.4	15.4	103.5	89.5	104.1
season	15.7	14.7		110.2	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.9		103.9	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	16.0	14.5	23.3	17.2
MIL	16.3	16.0	16.1	17.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	63	62	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.12	16	-5	21	17.6	16.2	1.38	17.1	14.7	2.46
LeBron James	73	75	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	-5	21	16.7	20.3	-3.59	16.5	16.1	0.40
Chris Andersen	29	28	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	0	11	18.5	16.6	1.93	15.3	17.0	-1.71
Shane Battier	40	40	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	3	5	18.8	15.8	3.03	15.9	16.9	-1.01
Ray Allen	51	53	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	4	3	17.6	16.7	0.95	15.6	17.8	-2.18
Chris Bosh	50	53	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	6	-1	16.4	18.5	-2.11	17.2	15.2	2.04
Mike Miller	42	42	0.12	0.39	-0.27	0.06	2	9	-7	15.9	18.5	-2.61	16.7	16.2	0.44
Udonis Haslem	35	35	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	9	-7	16.3	17.9	-1.63	17.4	15.8	1.57
Joel Anthony	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	14	-17	24.0	17.0	7.00	13.0	16.5	-3.52
Rashard Lewis	14	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	12	-13	17.9	17.1	0.73	18.2	16.1	2.12
Norris Cole	25	26	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.14	-8	19	-27	17.2	17.3	-0.12	14.5	17.3	-2.73

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gustavo Ayon	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	6.0	16.6	-10.56	23.5	17.1	6.40
Ish Smith	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	13.0	16.5	-3.52	24.0	17.0	7.00
Ekpe Udoh	32	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-11	11	14.6	17.5	-2.94	17.5	17.1	0.32
John Henson	8	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-10	9	15.7	16.5	-0.76	21.7	16.7	4.94
Ersan Ilyasova	52	51	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-10	9	16.7	16.0	0.73	15.3	20.1	-4.83
Mike Dunleavy	47	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-8	5	16.5	16.4	0.15	18.6	15.6	3.06
Brandon Jennings	41	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-2	-7	17.2	15.7	1.49	16.6	17.8	-1.13
JJ Redick	50	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-2	-7	15.7	17.4	-1.68	18.5	15.6	2.93
Monta Ellis	71	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-1	-9	16.4	16.8	-0.43	16.7	19.7	-3.02
Larry Sanders	53	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.02	-14	3	-17	17.8	14.3	3.42	16.9	17.9	-0.96
Luc Mbah a Moute	73	72	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	3	-17	16.5	16.2	0.25	16.9	19.2	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 86, NJN 80	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.31,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%
UTA 95, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0	94.8%
TOR 112, CHI 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.31,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	94.8%