NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	5.5 [706]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +8.1%
New Jersey Nets	80		Comeback	1.1 [804]		LVP	Vladimir Stepania (NJN): -19.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.01	12	67%	0.15	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
A.C. Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	5	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	15	67%	0.12	4	-0.11	16	81%	0.02
Cedric Ceballos	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	14	47%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	6	62%	0.06	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Eddie House	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.03	0.10	22	70%	0.13	4	-0.08	9	100%	0.03
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	64%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	12	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	10	20%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	6	21%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.07	-0.00	12	23%	-0.16	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	0.5	30.3	14.8	26.1	1.4	32.9	128.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +57.3%

MIA +9.7%

NJN -14.1%

NJN -0.0%

NJN -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	15.2	17.9	15.5	98.9	92.0	100.9
season	16.3	15.5		98.4	97.8
opponent	15.1	16.1		103.0	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	15.6	16.6	15.5	15.2
NJN	20.3	18.6	16.1	16.5	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	76	73	0.58	-0.09	0.67	0.29	10	-4	14	15.1	16.5	-1.39	17.8	17.9	-0.08
A.C. Green	51	52	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	1	4	15.5	14.8	0.70	16.6	19.7	-3.05
Brian Grant	64	64	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	-1	8	15.6	14.1	1.51	18.4	16.4	1.94
Anthony Mason	67	67	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.22	2	4	-2	14.9	16.3	-1.37	18.2	16.6	1.64
Eddie Jones	79	79	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	5	-4	15.3	14.7	0.54	17.6	20.0	-2.35
Eddie House	27	28	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	2	2	13.7	15.9	-2.18	16.7	18.4	-1.75
Bruce Bowen	52	54	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.25	-1	7	-8	15.1	15.4	-0.27	19.6	15.1	4.46
Cedric Ceballos	12	10	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	8	-10	17.4	14.9	2.52	14.8	18.3	-3.46

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	54	56	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.21	4	-10	14	17.8	17.9	-0.08	15.1	15.5	-0.43
Sherman Douglas	20	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-3	0	18.3	17.7	0.63	15.1	15.3	-0.16
Kenyon Martin	32	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	1	-8	19.5	16.9	2.64	14.8	15.5	-0.67
Stephen Jackson	43	44	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.16	0	-6	6	17.0	18.7	-1.80	15.0	15.5	-0.53
Vladimir Stepania	43	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-1	-4	18.0	17.7	0.36	15.8	14.7	1.11
Aaron Williams	76	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-5	4	17.7	19.1	-1.41	15.0	16.8	-1.81
Lucious Harris	43	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	18.3	17.4	0.96	15.4	15.1	0.22
Stephon Marbury	68	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-3	0	17.5	19.3	-1.86	15.3	15.1	0.16
Johnny Newman	34	32	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	5	-16	18.4	17.5	0.95	15.7	15.0	0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.31,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 88, MIL 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
MIL 83, NYK 67	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.55,0.48,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.24,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.7%
TOR 112, CHI 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.31,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	94.4%