NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	83		Excitement	5.1 [788]		MVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): +13.1%
New York Knicks	67		Comeback	1.2 [643]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -17.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.02	15	80%	0.19	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.04	0.01	6	79%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	10	30%	-0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.02	-0.02	5	30%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.12	0.01	-0.05	13	36%	0.02	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
John Salmons	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	18	39%	-0.03	3	-0.10	2	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.04	-0.02	9	20%	-0.07	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	12	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	6	40%	0.01	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	8	28%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	16	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	64%	0.03	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	14	44%	-0.05	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.05	-0.03	8	25%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	27.6	24.6	25.4	2.4	25.7	131.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +33.3%

MIL +1.1%

MIL +22.5%

NYK -7.1%

MIL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NYK	NBA	MIL	NYK	NBA
this game	15.5	15.4	15.3	89.2	72.0	106.0
season	15.5	14.7		103.3	105.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.9	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.8	14.0	15.8	16.7	15.5
NYK	17.7	15.4	13.0	16.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	53	52	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	1	14	14.3	17.1	-2.81	15.0	15.9	-0.86
Ersan Ilyasova	47	48	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	5	6	13.7	17.5	-3.82	13.8	17.1	-3.28
Andrew Bogut	69	68	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.01	13	3	10	15.9	14.5	1.41	16.1	13.7	2.38
Luc Mbah a Moute	61	61	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.06	14	2	12	17.0	12.9	4.08	15.6	15.0	0.59
Brandon Jennings	51	52	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	7	2	16.1	14.8	1.30	15.3	15.6	-0.25
Carlos Delfino	67	66	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	6	4	16.4	13.3	3.11	15.7	14.8	0.90
John Salmons	75	76	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.09	10	6	4	16.0	13.7	2.33	15.9	13.2	2.67
Jerry Stackhouse	32	32	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	14	-12	12.9	17.0	-4.08	15.0	15.6	-0.59
Royal Ivey	10	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	20	-24	16.1	15.5	0.62	15.8	15.4	0.43

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toney Douglas	8	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-13	10	13.9	15.6	-1.69	10.9	16.0	-5.11
Tracy McGrady	55	55	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-15	14	16.1	14.4	1.64	17.0	13.5	3.51
Danilo Gallinari	63	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.12	-9	-7	-2	16.0	14.3	1.65	17.0	12.7	4.31
Jonathan Bender	28	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-15	14	13.1	16.4	-3.26	14.4	16.0	-1.60
David Lee	62	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	-8	0	16.6	13.1	3.44	16.7	12.9	3.80
Sergio Rodriguez	61	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.17	-19	3	-22	14.6	16.9	-2.27	14.4	17.5	-3.10
Al Harrington	49	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	-5	-6	14.5	16.5	-2.01	14.4	16.8	-2.34
Eddie House	59	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	-6	-4	15.9	14.6	1.31	15.7	15.4	0.31
Wilson Chandler	80	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	2	-20	15.4	15.4	0.04	14.8	20.2	-5.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.55,0.48,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.24,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 86, NJN 80	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.31,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.7%
ORL 113, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
ORL 95, NJN 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%