NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	103		Excitement	7.3 [295]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +44.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	100		Comeback	23.7 [48]		LVP	Pau Gasol (LAL): -26.2%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.44	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.13,0.44	0.13	0.32	0.01	18	67%	0.51	3	-0.07	10	80%	-0.07
Kendrick Perkins	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.08	-0.03	0.11	-0.00	3	33%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.11,-0.07	0.17	-0.22	0.03	26	63%	0.11	1	-0.18	7	86%	0.03
James Harden	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	11	40%	-0.06	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	28	52%	0.16	2	-0.05	17	82%	0.08
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	15	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.11	-0.00	10	58%	0.05	2	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.26	-0.26	-0.06	-0.20	0.00	10	45%	0.00	3	-0.27	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.8	31.2	20.8	34.8	0.2	37.4	151.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +51.7%

LAL -7.5%

LAL -8.3%

OKC +16.9%

LAL -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	LAL	NBA	OKC	LAL	NBA
this game	13.7	19.0	15.6	117.0	113.6	102.8
season	14.7	16.2		107.9	103.8
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.5	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.4	12.8	14.5	13.0	13.7
LAL	16.9	20.0	18.2	21.3	19.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	60	59	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.50	9	-6	15	13.7	13.7	-0.08	19.1	19.0	0.10
Serge Ibaka	62	62	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-6	15	13.3	14.7	-1.47	19.6	17.7	1.85
Russell Westbrook	79	78	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.39	9	-6	15	13.5	15.2	-1.70	19.2	17.6	1.62
James Harden	60	60	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.39	8	-5	13	13.1	15.0	-1.92	19.3	18.5	0.84
Kevin Durant	84	84	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.34	8	-5	13	13.6	16.2	-2.68	18.9	22.2	-3.37
Thabo Sefolosha	34	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	6	-9	15.1	12.8	2.27	19.0	19.1	-0.05
Daequan Cook	4	4	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	8	-13	16.2	13.6	2.68	22.2	18.9	3.37
Nazr Mohammed	6	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	7	-11	14.3	13.6	0.69	20.7	18.9	1.89
Nick Collison	22	23	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	9	-15	14.1	13.6	0.53	17.2	19.7	-2.52
Derek Fisher	29	29	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	-0.08	-10	13	-23	14.3	13.4	0.97	17.8	19.6	-1.85

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ramon Sessions	57	60	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.02	11	-14	25	19.6	17.9	1.75	14.2	12.5	1.70
Jordan Hill	28	26	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.16	0	-3	3	17.0	20.0	-3.04	13.2	13.9	-0.77
Matt Barnes	11	10	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-2	1	14.2	19.7	-5.55	12.0	13.9	-1.91
Andrew Bynum	78	79	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.53	1	-4	5	19.4	16.5	2.86	13.6	14.3	-0.71
Metta World Peace	77	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	1	-5	19.7	14.2	5.55	14.1	10.9	3.18
Kobe Bryant	75	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.38	-9	6	-15	18.5	22.2	-3.75	13.2	16.1	-2.91
Steve Blake	44	43	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.48	-6	3	-9	19.2	18.9	0.30	13.4	14.0	-0.54
Pau Gasol	70	71	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.46	-7	4	-11	19.5	17.2	2.28	14.0	12.5	1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.73,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.89,0.82,0.87,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.67,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 110, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.6,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.9,0.55,0.42,0	92.8%
HOU 109, SEA 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.79,0.55,0.58,0	92.4%
DAL 99, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.42,0	92.2%