NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	75		Excitement	6.1 [461]		MVP	Brandon Bass (BOS): +14.3%
Boston Celtics	85		Comeback	1.1 [802]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (PHI): -13.8%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.02	11	60%	0.19	3	-0.11	8	62%	-0.05
Elton Brand	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.03	0.04	11	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jodie Meeks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	35%	0.01	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.03
Lavoy Allen	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	4	22%	-0.04	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Louis Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	9	33%	-0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Evan Turner	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	8	37%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	17	41%	-0.03	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.08	0.01	10	67%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.02	11	44%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	17	45%	0.08	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	14	48%	0.08	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	0.02	13	58%	0.10	7	-0.18	5	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	2.7	34.1	16.5	25.5	2.8	37.4	149.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +46.2%

BOS +6.7%

PHI -9.0%

BOS +6.2%

PHI -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	BOS	NBA	PHI	BOS	NBA
this game	15.4	16.2	15.6	82.4	93.4	102.8
season	15.6	15.5		101.0	99.4
opponent	16.2	16.1		97.1	97.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	18.1	16.9	11.8	15.2	15.4
BOS	14.0	15.8	19.0	16.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jodie Meeks	10	11	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-11	12	14.1	15.6	-1.48	14.1	16.5	-2.43
Lavoy Allen	33	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-11	12	14.7	15.8	-1.08	14.8	17.0	-2.22
Louis Williams	51	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.21	3	-13	16	14.6	16.4	-1.80	15.4	17.4	-2.02
Thaddeus Young	48	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-9	8	14.2	16.7	-2.47	16.0	16.5	-0.46
Spencer Hawes	31	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	0	-10	16.6	14.8	1.81	17.4	15.6	1.81
Jrue Holiday	78	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	-3	-4	15.2	17.0	-1.85	16.2	16.5	-0.27
Elton Brand	60	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	-2	-6	17.2	12.0	5.13	17.2	14.5	2.62
Andre Iguodala	83	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-4	-2	15.3	16.5	-1.19	16.4	14.8	1.61
Evan Turner	61	59	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.02	-23	13	-36	15.7	14.8	0.97	16.6	15.5	1.13

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	70	68	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.15	19	-9	28	16.4	15.7	0.73	16.5	12.3	4.11
Brandon Bass	76	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-1	12	16.8	13.3	3.55	16.5	10.6	5.87
Kevin Garnett	75	74	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-6	22	15.9	17.6	-1.69	14.9	17.5	-2.60
Rajon Rondo	81	82	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	0	10	16.7	12.8	3.85	15.3	16.8	-1.51
Mickael Pietrus	42	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	6	-2	15.5	16.8	-1.31	13.3	17.2	-3.87
Keyon Dooling	16	16	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	8	-6	13.2	16.9	-3.62	13.9	15.7	-1.80
Paul Pierce	67	69	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	13	-16	16.7	15.0	1.67	15.8	14.3	1.45
Ryan Hollins	19	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	12	-14	15.8	16.3	-0.49	13.0	16.2	-3.13
Greg Stiemsma	9	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	17	-24	14.8	16.4	-1.61	19.3	15.0	4.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.76,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.89,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 105, BKN 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.67,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.65,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.98,1,1	94.3%
VAN 79, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.83,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.91,1	92.9%
NYK 88, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.95,0.94,1,1	92.7%