NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	98		Excitement	9.5 [76]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (OKC): +63.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Comeback	21.9 [78]		LVP	Vince Carter (DAL): -19.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.19	0.05	0.01	10	100%	0.26	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.12	-0.00	4	50%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.08
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,0.09,0.13,0.03,0.12	-0.02	0.14	-0.01	18	54%	0.54	6	-0.41	10	90%	0.18
Shawn Marion	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	14	61%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.07	0.01	8	42%	0.09	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
Delonte West	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	4	33%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	14	41%	-0.09	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.32,0.63	0.64	0.19	0.44	0.00	12	79%	0.64	0	0.00	4	75%	0.03
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.05,0.36	0.36	-0.05	0.41	-0.00	27	42%	0.42	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	7	79%	0.30	5	-0.16	10	90%	0.05
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	2	125%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.04	0.04	23	60%	0.15	5	-0.20	1	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.0	32.0	17.0	28.7	3.4	44.4	156.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +56.9%

DAL -17.8%

DAL -24.9%

OKC +18.4%

OKC +17.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	OKC	NBA	DAL	OKC	NBA
this game	16.6	14.2	15.6	104.3	106.5	102.8
season	15.5	14.7		101.6	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.9	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	18.0	15.6	15.6	17.2	16.6
OKC	12.8	16.4	15.0	12.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	48	49	0.47	-0.97	1.43	0.26	7	-8	15	16.9	16.3	0.59	15.8	12.5	3.28
Brendan Haywood	39	38	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.31	1	-2	3	17.6	15.9	1.72	12.9	15.1	-2.13
Brian Cardinal	1	0	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	0	-1	0.0	16.8	-16.76	0.0	14.2	-14.20
Delonte West	50	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.12	-8	7	-15	17.8	15.2	2.51	14.6	13.7	0.90
Jason Terry	66	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.51	8	-9	17	16.3	17.3	-1.05	14.3	13.9	0.50
Brandan Wright	13	13	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	9	-19	18.5	16.3	2.18	13.9	14.2	-0.33
Dirk Nowitzki	71	71	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	4	-9	17.2	14.6	2.67	13.6	16.2	-2.59
Jason Kidd	72	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.55	-2	1	-3	16.1	18.3	-2.26	13.8	15.5	-1.75
Ian Mahinmi	43	42	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.76	5	-6	11	14.7	18.1	-3.39	15.4	13.2	2.23
Shawn Marion	67	66	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.78	0	-1	1	16.2	17.6	-1.47	13.7	15.4	-1.70

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	76	77	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.67	2	-1	3	14.2	14.4	-0.18	16.3	17.8	-1.44
Kendrick Perkins	53	53	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.60	2	-1	3	12.9	15.9	-2.93	16.0	17.4	-1.43
Russell Westbrook	75	77	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	0	1	13.9	15.7	-1.81	16.1	18.8	-2.66
James Harden	66	67	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.54	-1	2	-3	14.4	13.7	0.65	16.3	17.4	-1.10
Kevin Durant	86	87	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	14.1	16.0	-1.94	16.3	20.3	-4.00
Thabo Sefolosha	35	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.03	0	1	-1	14.6	14.0	0.59	17.1	16.3	0.81
Daequan Cook	18	17	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	1	-1	15.7	13.9	1.81	18.8	16.1	2.66
Derek Fisher	28	28	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.20	1	0	1	14.8	14.0	0.83	18.4	15.8	2.63
Nick Collison	28	28	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.16	-1	2	-3	15.6	13.6	2.06	17.7	16.1	1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.35,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.48,0.56,0.4,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.46,0.27,0.31,0.04,0.06,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 85, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.11,0.42,1	92.8%
ATL 94, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.43,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.25,0.1,0.1,0.23,1	90.7%
SAS 95, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.19,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.2,0.43,1	90.7%