NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	94		Excitement	4.0 [799]		MVP	Mike Miller (MIA): +9.7%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.6 [976]		LVP	J.R. Smith (NYK): -11.1%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	70%	0.06	5	-0.06	6	100%	0.01
Steve Novak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	7	71%	0.04	3	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Josh Harrellson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.09	-0.02	0.10	31	53%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	0.00	0.04	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	15	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.00	-0.00	5	90%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.02	0.03	15	58%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	4	82%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.01	16	62%	0.11	4	-0.07	15	87%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	19	42%	0.05	2	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.01	6	44%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	0.02	11	45%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.5	28.4	19.3	29.7	2.8	32.2	143.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.1%

MIA +3.5%

MIA +10.6%

MIA +8.3%

MIA +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	16.6	15.9	15.6	106.8	119.1	102.8
season	14.9	15.5		102.3	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.7		98.8	100.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	14.1	19.2	20.2	13.8	16.6
MIA	14.7	16.8	14.0	18.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Harrellson	2	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.02	-1	-11	10	14.0	16.7	-2.70	22.5	15.8	6.74
Steve Novak	20	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.25	8	-20	28	16.0	16.8	-0.82	18.9	15.0	3.86
Toney Douglas	14	13	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-10	8	19.6	16.1	3.49	17.5	15.6	1.82
Jared Jeffries	8	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-8	4	19.5	16.3	3.15	20.3	15.5	4.75
Landry Fields	53	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	-5	-2	14.8	19.4	-4.59	15.9	15.9	0.08
Amar'e Stoudemire	60	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	0	-12	17.0	15.9	1.04	14.8	18.4	-3.64
Carmelo Anthony	76	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-6	0	16.7	15.9	0.83	15.1	22.4	-7.31
Tyson Chandler	77	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-2	-8	16.0	21.1	-5.09	15.8	17.0	-1.24
Mike Bibby	67	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-6	0	16.4	17.5	-1.17	16.0	15.6	0.44
J.R. Smith	63	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.03	-20	8	-28	18.1	13.0	5.02	16.1	15.4	0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	75	74	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	6	0	15.3	19.4	-4.18	16.4	17.9	-1.45
Chris Bosh	66	64	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	7	-2	15.2	18.0	-2.88	17.2	15.0	2.25
Joel Anthony	33	33	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	-5	22	17.6	14.9	2.70	16.7	16.6	0.05
Mike Miller	35	36	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	-1	14	16.1	15.8	0.24	16.9	16.4	0.52
Shane Battier	49	49	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.10	8	4	4	17.6	13.8	3.79	16.1	17.3	-1.25
Dwyane Wade	74	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	6	0	15.7	16.9	-1.15	16.5	17.3	-0.76
Udonis Haslem	46	46	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	5	2	14.4	17.5	-3.10	16.9	16.4	0.53
Mario Chalmers	67	65	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	14	-16	16.5	14.2	2.24	16.5	17.0	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, TOR 120	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.88,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
ATL 114, MIN 126	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.76,0.72,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	95.7%
UTA 97, CHI 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%