NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	6.9 [438]		MVP	Jose Juan Barea (DAL): +24.8%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	2.8 [441]		LVP	LeBron James (MIA): -33.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.13	0.00	12	64%	0.28	4	-0.11	12	83%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.03	-0.00	6	100%	0.19	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	8	62%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.03	5	90%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.07	-0.03	12	58%	0.14	4	-0.18	9	78%	-0.02
Eddie House	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.26,-0.34,-0.34	-0.11	-0.22	0.01	19	42%	-0.15	4	-0.19	2	50%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.12	0.12	-0.01	11	74%	0.28	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.09	0.03	12	81%	0.25	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.11	0.04	6	93%	0.21	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.03	18	63%	0.24	2	-0.11	10	100%	0.09
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	7	68%	0.09	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	60%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	11	36%	-0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	2.8	36.2	19.5	27.3	3.5	39.5	159.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.4%

DAL +8.8%

MIA -14.2%

DAL +24.0%

DAL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.3	16.3	15.5	117.0	125.8	105.7
season	16.0	15.7		109.0	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	16.9	18.2	14.7	16.3
DAL	12.6	15.9	20.8	17.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	10	11	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.08	6	-15	21	14.3	16.5	-2.23	15.7	16.3	-0.62
Eddie House	7	7	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.02	3	-12	15	14.3	16.4	-2.16	16.4	16.3	0.17
Mario Chalmers	42	43	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.01	-1	-8	7	15.7	16.8	-1.07	16.5	16.0	0.51
Mike Bibby	29	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-2	-5	17.4	15.7	1.75	15.3	16.7	-1.37
Joel Anthony	29	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	0	-9	17.9	15.5	2.47	15.6	16.6	-1.06
Mike Miller	41	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-9	9	16.9	15.7	1.22	17.2	15.5	1.70
Udonis Haslem	59	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-9	9	16.0	16.8	-0.78	17.4	14.0	3.37
Dwyane Wade	66	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.13	-13	4	-17	15.7	18.0	-2.30	15.5	18.6	-3.08
Chris Bosh	74	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	4	-17	16.4	15.7	0.66	16.1	16.9	-0.76
LeBron James	83	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	2	-13	16.2	17.6	-1.41	16.2	16.7	-0.50

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	64	63	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.06	21	-12	33	15.7	17.8	-2.13	16.4	15.9	0.55
Jason Kidd	75	73	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.18	13	-4	17	15.8	18.6	-2.82	16.2	16.9	-0.72
Tyson Chandler	73	71	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.15	14	-5	19	15.5	19.7	-4.17	16.4	15.9	0.41
Dirk Nowitzki	73	72	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.14	14	-5	19	16.6	14.7	1.85	16.4	15.8	0.56
Jason Terry	59	60	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.35	1	8	-7	16.0	16.8	-0.85	15.3	18.2	-2.90
Jose Juan Barea	44	43	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	5	-1	17.4	15.2	2.25	17.8	14.8	2.92
Ian Mahinmi	14	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	12	-15	20.0	15.6	4.43	16.6	16.2	0.36
Brian Cardinal	18	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.15	-7	16	-23	15.1	16.6	-1.52	15.4	16.5	-1.15
DeShawn Stevenson	25	25	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.18	-12	21	-33	17.8	15.7	2.13	15.9	16.4	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.67,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 97, CLE 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.83,0.77,0.72,0.54,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.39,0.63,0.76,0.98,1	91.6%
WAS 92, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.54,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.74,1	91.2%
HOU 79, UTA 83	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.75,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.59,0.34,0.25,0.45,0.78,0.84,1	91.0%