NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	6.5 [521]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +37.3%
Chicago Bulls	80		Comeback	415.7 [3]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -24.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.37	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,0.18,0.37	0.03	0.37	0.03	19	57%	0.48	4	-0.11	11	82%	0.04
Chris Bosh	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.12	0.02	0.11	0.01	15	56%	0.17	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.10
Mike Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Mike Bibby	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.02	0.04	13	57%	0.09	9	-0.23	11	73%	-0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	5	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	17	46%	0.04	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.15	-0.04	29	39%	-0.02	4	-0.22	6	83%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.4	34.5	19.4	32.2	2.8	40.4	160.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.5%

MIA +21.6%

MIA +2.0%

CHI -9.5%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.9	15.6	15.5	94.3	89.9	105.7
season	16.0	15.7		109.0	106.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		99.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	17.0	17.3	16.0	16.9
CHI	14.0	15.0	14.7	19.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	45	45	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.44	14	-11	25	16.4	17.5	-1.04	15.7	15.5	0.23
Chris Bosh	77	79	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.43	13	-10	23	15.9	24.2	-8.29	16.3	9.9	6.44
LeBron James	83	84	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.39	8	-5	13	16.9	16.8	0.14	15.9	11.2	4.68
Udonis Haslem	45	46	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.46	5	-2	7	18.0	15.9	2.10	16.0	15.3	0.70
Dwyane Wade	72	72	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.50	0	3	-3	16.0	20.9	-4.90	16.0	14.2	1.78
Mike Bibby	31	32	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.00	-7	10	-17	16.2	17.3	-1.09	15.2	15.9	-0.67
Mario Chalmers	33	35	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.11	-6	9	-15	20.2	15.0	5.25	14.1	16.6	-2.53
Joel Anthony	54	52	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.05	-12	15	-27	17.6	15.9	1.61	14.5	17.2	-2.64

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Boozer	49	51	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.08	5	-8	13	15.4	15.9	-0.51	16.2	17.9	-1.75
Joakim Noah	53	52	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.11	-2	-1	-1	14.8	16.8	-1.99	16.7	17.2	-0.44
CJ Watson	11	10	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-7	11	15.1	15.7	-0.60	18.9	16.7	2.22
Kyle Korver	25	23	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-6	9	15.9	15.5	0.42	15.2	17.6	-2.38
Keith Bogans	40	39	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	14.9	16.2	-1.35	16.4	17.4	-0.98
Ronnie Brewer	48	47	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	0	-3	15.7	15.6	0.11	18.1	15.6	2.57
Luol Deng	65	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	1	-5	15.9	14.8	1.13	17.0	16.7	0.35
Derrick Rose	78	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.33	-7	4	-11	15.7	15.1	0.60	16.7	18.9	-2.22
Taj Gibson	44	42	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.52	-2	-1	-1	15.5	15.7	-0.23	17.9	16.1	1.82
Kurt Thomas	32	31	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.49	-7	4	-11	17.5	14.6	2.89	17.2	16.8	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.77,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.93,0.82,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.94,0.59,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 103, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.54,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.92,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.78,0.73,0	91.7%
CLE 84, POR 83	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.89,0.68,0.72,0	91.1%
SAC 103, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.81,0.84,0.42,0	91.1%