NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	103		Excitement	7.3 [338]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +53.6%
Indiana Pacers	100		Comeback	32.4 [14]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -23.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.54	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.18,-0.17,-0.15,0.01,0.54	0.03	0.53	0.02	24	58%	0.61	2	-0.07	21	100%	0.21
Eric Williams	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	12	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	0.01	20	52%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Mark Blount	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Bremer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.09	0.02	12	46%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.09	-0.00	12	79%	0.26	2	-0.04	9	100%	0.11
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	6	60%	0.08	2	-0.07	8	75%	0.07
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	0.05	7	87%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	12	48%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	4	10%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23	-0.23	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	8	12%	-0.21	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.24	-0.24	-0.06	-0.16	0.01	15	55%	-0.17	3	-0.07	14	71%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.7	34.7	18.0	27.2	3.8	51.1	163.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +77.6%

IND -18.4%

IND -19.2%

BOS +11.9%

IND -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	14.9	16.4	15.5	112.0	108.7	101.6
season	15.6	15.4		99.3	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.2	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.6	16.4	17.4	12.2	14.9
IND	14.1	13.6	17.7	21.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	70	72	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.30	17	-14	31	14.7	15.3	-0.59	17.5	12.5	4.96
Tony Delk	72	74	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.28	17	-14	31	14.4	16.5	-2.15	16.9	14.3	2.61
Walter McCarty	58	56	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.52	3	0	3	14.1	16.1	-1.98	17.0	15.5	1.49
Antoine Walker	87	87	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-6	15	14.9	15.2	-0.35	16.4	16.4	0.04
Paul Pierce	88	88	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	-1	5	14.8	17.0	-2.23	16.2	20.7	-4.51
Tony Battie	20	21	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	0	3	15.4	14.7	0.68	14.7	17.0	-2.29
Mark Bryant	4	3	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	2	-1	15.5	14.8	0.66	17.0	16.4	0.58
J.R. Bremer	20	19	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.11	-11	14	-25	16.5	14.4	2.15	13.6	17.2	-3.60
Grant Long	12	11	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.13	-13	16	-29	17.7	14.4	3.22	13.7	16.8	-3.08
Mark Blount	29	29	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.05	-15	18	-33	15.4	14.6	0.79	16.0	16.6	-0.58

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	61	61	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.06	9	-12	21	13.7	21.9	-8.20	14.4	15.7	-1.32
Austin Croshere	25	24	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.08	9	-12	21	14.2	17.3	-3.01	16.2	14.4	1.87
Ron Mercer	9	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-3	3	16.0	16.5	-0.48	15.5	14.8	0.71
Metta World Peace	75	77	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-6	9	16.9	14.5	2.34	15.5	11.5	4.07
Jonathan Bender	11	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.08	-5	2	-7	25.5	15.2	10.35	16.2	14.7	1.50
Erick Strickland	1	0	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	0	-3	0.0	16.6	-16.62	0.0	14.9	-14.87
Tim Hardaway	8	7	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.09	-8	5	-13	26.5	15.5	11.02	16.3	14.8	1.53
Jamaal Tinsley	84	85	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.50	5	-8	13	15.5	26.5	-11.02	14.8	16.3	-1.53
Brad Miller	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	2	-7	18.2	14.5	3.80	14.6	15.2	-0.60
Jermaine O'Neal	87	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-4	5	16.7	12.4	4.27	14.8	16.2	-1.39
Jeff Foster	5	6	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.41	-9	6	-15	14.2	16.6	-2.36	11.2	15.1	-3.96
Al Harrington	46	47	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.43	-12	9	-21	16.8	16.1	0.65	14.2	15.6	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.54,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.92,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.78,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 84, POR 83	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.89,0.68,0.72,0	92.5%
MIA 83, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.77,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.93,0.82,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.94,0.59,0	91.7%
MIL 110, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.6,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.9,0.55,0.42,0	91.7%