NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	94		Excitement	7.1 [371]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +21.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	96		Comeback	1.3 [1112]		LVP	Joakim Noah (CHI): -18.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	9	55%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.00	0.04	17	58%	0.07	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.02
Ronald Murray	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,-0.03	0.04	-0.05	0.02	27	52%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.08
Hakim Warrick	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.09
Joakim Noah	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	7	-0.24	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21	0.21	-0.01	0.19	-0.03	12	50%	0.28	3	-0.07	14	57%	-0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.10	-0.02	11	67%	0.25	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	14	69%	0.18	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	9	74%	0.18	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.01
JJ Hickson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	7	31%	-0.03	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	13	26%	-0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.8	31.1	20.0	26.2	3.5	50.2	159.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +50.8%

CLE +6.1%

CHI -4.9%

CLE +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CLE	NBA	CHI	CLE	NBA
this game	14.5	17.0	15.3	102.2	105.5	106.0
season	14.7	16.1		101.9	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.7		103.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.2	15.0	13.0	13.8	14.5
CLE	13.8	16.3	19.7	18.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	21	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.21	6	-8	14	15.1	14.4	0.73	19.3	16.2	3.12
Hakim Warrick	16	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	0	-2	17.2	14.0	3.21	15.6	17.2	-1.62
Taj Gibson	67	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-5	8	13.8	16.6	-2.78	17.2	16.2	1.02
Brad Miller	14	16	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.02	-6	4	-10	17.6	14.0	3.67	21.6	16.0	5.59
Joakim Noah	85	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-2	2	14.3	17.7	-3.44	16.1	24.3	-8.19
Luol Deng	88	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-3	4	14.6	12.2	2.39	16.8	19.0	-2.16
Kirk Hinrich	84	83	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.43	-6	4	-10	14.3	16.6	-2.29	17.0	17.0	-0.05
Derrick Rose	85	85	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.46	-6	4	-10	14.3	17.0	-2.67	16.4	24.7	-8.25

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Delonte West	56	56	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	17.6	16.0	1.60	14.8	14.1	0.69
Mo Williams	69	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	17.3	15.9	1.44	13.8	17.0	-3.14
LeBron James	82	84	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	1	0	16.6	20.4	-3.87	14.5	14.9	-0.37
Anderson Varejao	49	48	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.46	-3	5	-8	18.6	15.1	3.50	14.9	14.1	0.85
Antawn Jamison	72	74	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	-1	4	16.4	19.1	-2.65	14.4	15.2	-0.79
Jamario Moon	31	26	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	3	-4	17.1	16.9	0.16	15.4	14.2	1.19
Shaquille O'Neal	51	54	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.08	8	-6	14	16.3	17.8	-1.51	14.9	14.0	0.91
Anthony Parker	38	40	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	0	2	16.0	17.6	-1.60	14.7	14.4	0.38
JJ Hickson	7	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	5	-8	16.9	17.0	-0.11	11.6	14.8	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.97,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 90, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.96,1	93.6%
WAS 85, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.53,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.8,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.0%
BOS 96, IND 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	92.4%