inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Dallas Mavericks 105 Excitement5.6 [710] MVPJ.R. Smith (DEN): +21.8%
Denver Nuggets 117 Comeback1.5 [946] LVPDahntay Jones (DEN): -7.6%


Dallas Mavericks
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki0.110,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.110.150.010.052066%0.203-0.081392%0.04
Ryan Hollins0.060,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.080.000.024100%0.0600.0000%0.00
Brandon Bass0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.040.05-0.010.00667%0.0400.0000%0.00
Jason Terry0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.010.010.001850%0.072-0.06667%-0.03
Antoine Wright0.000,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.07-0.010.05571%0.0000.00475%-0.00
Matt Carroll0.0000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Gerald Green0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.040.000.04283%0.0000.002100%0.00
Jason Kidd-0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.080.05-0.03629%0.042-0.05250%-0.02
James Singleton-0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.01-0.01-0.00550%0.011-0.0300%0.00
Erick Dampier-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.01-0.010.00444%-0.011-0.0210%-0.02
Jose Juan Barea-0.050,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.03-0.010.01542%-0.031-0.03250%-0.01
Josh Howard-0.050,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.070.00-0.0130%-0.031-0.0200%0.00

Denver Nuggets
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
J.R. Smith0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.220.220.180.040.001078%0.2200.00786%0.01
Nene0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.130.130.140.010.021268%0.161-0.041369%-0.02
Carmelo Anthony0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.070.070.020.060.012149%0.091-0.02989%0.04
Chauncey Billups0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.060.070.050.061264%0.122-0.064100%0.02
Chris Andersen0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.050.050.040.00-0.00580%0.0510.0000%0.00
Anthony Carter0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.030.010.020.00450%0.0300.0000%0.00
Kenyon Martin0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.01-0.000.01-0.00763%0.083-0.07580%0.01
Jason Hart00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Johan Petro00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Renaldo Balkman00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Linas Kleiza0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.000.010.000.01450%-0.0000.0000%0.00
Dahntay Jones0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08-0.08-0.09-0.01-0.0230%-0.0810.0020%-0.05
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game34.12.731.220.433.53.634.2159.8
league avg26.42.430.116.527.12.433.3140.8
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
DEN +16.7%
DEN +14.3%
DAL -0.2%
DEN +15.7%
DEN +3.5%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsDALDENNBADALDENNBA
this game16.314.215.5111.7123.2106.4
season15.614.4108.9109.5
opponent15.715.4105.2107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
DAL15.415.217.217.616.3
DEN11.216.114.116.014.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Josh Howard13130.10-0.600.71-0.076-182415.316.4-1.1213.814.3-0.42
Matt Carroll440.00-0.500.50-0.155-172210.716.5-5.7713.514.2-0.74
Gerald Green440.00-0.500.50-0.155-172210.716.5-5.7713.514.2-0.74
Erick Dampier3941-0.08-0.420.340.07-5-7215.716.7-1.0013.614.7-1.14
Dirk Nowitzki7978-0.10-0.400.30-0.01-3-9616.316.00.3314.314.00.26
Antoine Wright5962-0.17-0.330.16-0.14-1-111015.817.1-1.2414.214.20.09
Ryan Hollins2828-0.19-0.310.12-0.07-4-8416.116.3-0.1914.913.91.02
Jason Kidd7577-0.23-0.270.040.03-9-3-615.917.6-1.7013.915.6-1.66
Brandon Bass2930-0.29-0.21-0.08-0.11-6-6016.816.00.8015.113.81.30
James Singleton2625-0.42-0.08-0.34-0.16-9-3-617.515.81.6914.714.00.69
Jason Terry7676-0.530.03-0.560.09-219-3016.814.12.7514.214.3-0.07
Jose Juan Barea3837-0.600.10-0.70-0.07-186-2417.415.51.9714.114.3-0.12

Denver Nuggets
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
J.R. Smith51500.77-0.271.04-0.0227-154213.215.3-2.1116.715.80.90
Chris Andersen48480.69-0.190.89-0.0124-123614.114.3-0.2117.215.31.95
Carmelo Anthony82830.430.070.370.081201214.015.3-1.2716.613.62.99
Chauncey Billups77780.250.250.00-0.04102814.015.2-1.2515.818.4-2.53
Anthony Carter37360.220.28-0.060.0857-216.212.93.2416.616.10.54
Nene70680.170.33-0.15-0.0066013.715.6-1.8316.316.30.01
Kenyon Martin57570.110.39-0.290.11012-1214.513.70.8315.717.1-1.37
Linas Kleiza11120.030.47-0.450.11-315-1816.313.92.3315.816.3-0.51
Jason Hart430.000.50-0.500.09-315-1813.514.2-0.7413.016.4-3.38
Johan Petro430.000.50-0.500.09-315-1813.514.2-0.7413.016.4-3.38
Renaldo Balkman430.000.50-0.500.09-315-1813.514.2-0.7413.016.4-3.38
Dahntay Jones3029-0.180.68-0.860.17-1224-3614.714.00.7216.016.4-0.45


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.62,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.94,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
TOR 83, MIA 1030.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.63,0.62,0.74,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.96,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,194.9%
ATL 86, PHI 980.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.85,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,194.2%
MIL 80, ATL 980.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.69,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,194.1%