NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	106		Excitement	4.2 [987]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +16.1%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	1.0 [472]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -9.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.03	0.05	17	74%	0.18	2	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	11	55%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.01	0.04	14	63%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.04	2	-0.02	7	43%	-0.05
Jose Juan Barea	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	45%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	11	65%	0.07	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	87%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.17	-0.02	0.11	21	62%	0.05	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.07
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	8	47%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	9	45%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	21	57%	0.05	7	-0.15	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.6	31.3	20.4	30.5	3.5	32.2	146.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +25.0%

DAL +9.4%

DAL +6.8%

DAL +6.3%

DAL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.1	16.2	15.5	123.3	106.9	106.4
season	15.6	16.4		108.9	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.2	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.0	19.5	15.7	22.0	17.1
SAS	18.0	15.7	17.7	12.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	74	75	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.10	12	1	11	17.1	16.8	0.30	16.1	17.2	-1.11
Jose Juan Barea	46	48	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.09	18	-5	23	15.3	19.2	-3.89	18.3	13.7	4.60
Dirk Nowitzki	74	75	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.11	11	2	9	17.0	17.8	-0.86	16.6	13.7	2.95
Erick Dampier	72	73	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	1	11	17.4	15.4	1.99	16.2	16.2	-0.01
Josh Howard	68	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	2	9	16.9	17.8	-0.87	15.7	17.9	-2.16
Jason Terry	58	58	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	16	-19	18.7	13.7	5.06	15.1	18.5	-3.47
Brandon Bass	25	26	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	12	-11	16.6	17.3	-0.75	15.0	16.7	-1.67
Antoine Wright	12	12	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	12	-11	16.8	17.1	-0.30	17.2	16.1	1.11
Ryan Hollins	1	0	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	11	-9	16.0	17.1	-1.11	0.0	16.2	-16.21

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ime Udoka	38	38	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.27	10	-23	33	14.8	17.3	-2.42	19.6	15.1	4.55
Roger Mason Jr.	24	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	-7	1	15.6	16.4	-0.86	16.0	17.5	-1.47
Matt Bonner	21	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	-7	1	17.9	15.7	2.24	14.3	17.9	-3.64
George Hill	57	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-8	3	15.3	18.0	-2.74	19.1	13.3	5.88
Michael Finley	58	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-5	-3	16.4	15.9	0.47	17.2	16.9	0.24
Tony Parker	82	82	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-2	-9	15.7	24.4	-8.69	17.3	13.0	4.29
Bruce Bowen	41	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.03	-13	0	-13	17.3	15.3	2.01	15.1	18.9	-3.77
Kurt Thomas	41	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	-1	-11	18.0	14.6	3.39	14.7	19.1	-4.38
Tim Duncan	73	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	1	-15	16.2	16.2	-0.01	17.4	15.4	2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.28,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.12,0.22,0.13,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 112, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.2%
ATL 91, DET 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.1%
ORL 104, CHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.33,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%