NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	84		Excitement	2.7 [1231]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +18.5%
San Antonio Spurs	105		Comeback	1.1 [1097]		LVP	Josh Howard (DAL): -6.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Dampier	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	5	69%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.05	10	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.02	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Matt Carroll	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	14	38%	-0.00	0	0.00	9	89%	0.01
Jason Terry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.02	0.04	15	48%	0.00	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Antoine Wright	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	8	31%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	0.00	0.01	8	39%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.20	0.01	0.03	22	72%	0.23	3	-0.05	9	67%	-0.02
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	68%	0.07	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	57%	0.06	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	11	55%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	117%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.1	3.5	32.5	21.7	30.0	2.8	31.0	152.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.4%

DAL -3.6%

SAS +12.4%

SAS +5.5%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	16.1	15.5	94.4	116.7	106.4
season	15.6	16.4		108.9	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.2	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.9	14.9	16.7	16.9	16.0
SAS	16.1	15.7	14.7	18.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Carroll	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-22	23	21.3	15.9	5.47	16.5	16.1	0.38
Gerald Green	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-22	23	19.7	15.7	4.07	17.4	16.0	1.36
James Singleton	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-22	23	19.7	15.7	4.07	17.4	16.0	1.36
Ryan Hollins	8	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-21	21	19.7	15.7	4.07	19.6	15.8	3.80
Antoine Wright	30	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	-14	7	15.1	16.5	-1.48	17.2	15.6	1.60
Brandon Bass	38	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	-15	9	15.5	16.5	-0.95	16.8	15.7	1.09
Jason Terry	59	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.07	-11	-10	-1	14.8	18.4	-3.60	16.4	15.6	0.74
Erick Dampier	43	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.05	-13	-8	-5	16.4	15.7	0.68	16.1	16.2	-0.12
Jose Juan Barea	40	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.26	-21	0	-21	18.0	14.4	3.64	15.6	16.6	-1.01
Josh Howard	58	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.08	-15	-6	-9	15.7	16.7	-0.97	15.4	17.5	-2.11
Dirk Nowitzki	75	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	-7	-7	15.6	18.3	-2.66	15.5	19.7	-4.16
Jason Kidd	75	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.15	-21	0	-21	15.7	18.0	-2.32	16.0	16.7	-0.67

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	54	54	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.15	21	0	21	16.6	15.4	1.24	16.7	15.1	1.63
Michael Finley	50	49	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.36	28	-7	35	15.6	16.8	-1.24	15.8	16.4	-0.64
Tim Duncan	54	52	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.32	24	-3	27	15.9	16.6	-0.70	15.9	16.2	-0.29
Tony Parker	63	64	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.26	22	-1	23	16.0	16.4	-0.39	15.3	17.9	-2.55
Bruce Bowen	55	53	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	9	3	15.5	17.1	-1.56	16.0	16.1	-0.06
Ime Udoka	42	42	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.06	10	11	-1	15.9	16.4	-0.52	16.3	15.8	0.50
Roger Mason Jr.	50	50	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.15	1	20	-19	16.7	15.4	1.32	15.3	16.9	-1.61
Drew Gooden	34	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.20	-3	24	-27	16.2	16.1	0.16	16.6	15.7	0.93
Fabricio Oberto	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	17.4	16.0	1.36	19.7	15.7	4.07
George Hill	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	17.4	16.0	1.36	19.7	15.7	4.07
Jacque Vaughn	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	17.4	16.0	1.36	20.9	15.6	5.22
Kurt Thomas	24	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.19	-7	28	-35	16.4	16.0	0.33	13.7	16.9	-3.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 70, CLE 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
ATL 72, WAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
GSW 87, CHI 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%