NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	5.6 [709]		MVP	Roger Mason Jr. (SAS): +18.9%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	3.5 [170]		LVP	Kurt Thomas (SAS): -9.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Wright	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.11	0.01	5	73%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	18	60%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Jason Terry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.01	8	67%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	6	83%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	9	78%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.02	14	45%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	15	54%	0.09	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
James Singleton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.11	-0.03	10	62%	0.21	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.05	0.03	24	55%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.17	0.01	0.08	10	95%	0.11	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	9	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.06,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	22	48%	0.10	5	-0.17	6	83%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	3.0	30.0	20.0	26.2	3.5	36.5	148.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +26.2%

DAL +8.5%

DAL +5.5%

DAL +11.5%

SAS -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.3	18.4	15.5	126.5	116.9	106.4
season	15.6	16.4		108.9	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.2	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.7	17.1	16.3	18.4	16.3
SAS	19.0	18.9	18.0	17.6	18.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Juan Barea	45	45	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.19	17	-9	26	17.3	15.2	2.10	17.9	18.9	-0.96
Antoine Wright	26	27	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	0	8	15.5	16.7	-1.20	18.7	18.2	0.49
Dirk Nowitzki	67	68	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	3	2	16.2	16.7	-0.53	18.0	20.1	-2.15
Jason Terry	59	58	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	3	2	17.0	14.6	2.39	18.7	17.6	1.16
Brandon Bass	30	30	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	-4	16	16.6	16.2	0.48	19.6	17.7	1.92
Erick Dampier	66	64	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	8	-8	16.7	15.1	1.59	18.6	17.5	1.10
Jason Kidd	68	68	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	8	-8	16.0	17.7	-1.72	18.0	20.1	-2.15
Ryan Hollins	1	2	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	8	-8	10.0	16.4	-6.40	15.0	18.5	-3.46
Josh Howard	52	52	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	11	-14	15.2	18.1	-2.88	18.3	18.4	-0.07
James Singleton	1	1	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	12	-16	13.0	16.4	-3.37	17.0	18.4	-1.39

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	31	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-8	8	19.4	17.8	1.62	16.3	16.3	-0.04
Bruce Bowen	40	40	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-10	12	19.4	17.4	2.03	16.9	15.8	1.16
Tim Duncan	63	65	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-9	10	18.2	18.9	-0.69	16.8	14.6	2.26
Roger Mason Jr.	62	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-8	8	18.0	19.6	-1.67	16.4	16.1	0.33
Ime Udoka	27	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-8	8	18.3	18.4	-0.11	16.6	16.2	0.35
Kurt Thomas	32	30	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	1	-10	19.9	17.4	2.44	15.0	17.1	-2.08
Tony Parker	71	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-4	0	17.9	21.1	-3.17	16.6	14.0	2.64
Matt Bonner	31	32	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	2	-12	17.3	19.0	-1.73	16.4	16.3	0.18
Michael Finley	58	56	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.09	-20	12	-32	18.1	19.0	-0.95	15.4	18.3	-2.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.21,0.33,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.21,0.12,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.21,0.17,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0,0	92.3%
POR 125, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.14,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	92.3%
UTA 90, DAL 79	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.41,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.08,0.01,0,0	92.3%