NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	7.1 [413]		MVP	Rasual Butler (NOH): +29.0%
New Orleans Hornets	95		Comeback	3.3 [573]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -30.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dahntay Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	3	58%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.00	10	53%	0.11	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.01	8	65%	0.07	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.02	14	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	63%	0.09	6	-0.16	3	67%	-0.01
Nene	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.31	-0.02	-0.27	0.02	24	45%	-0.26	2	-0.05	8	50%	-0.04

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.12	-0.02	8	85%	0.29	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.02	20	65%	0.29	6	-0.16	9	89%	0.08
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	62%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
David West	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	-0.00	-0.08	18	43%	0.06	3	-0.06	8	62%	-0.03
Tyson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	9	20%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.25	-0.25	0.02	-0.21	0.06	6	62%	-0.01	3	-0.24	9	78%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	3.6	30.1	19.6	34.1	3.5	42.4	164.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +62.8%

DEN -9.6%

NOH +13.8%

DEN -20.9%

NOH +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOH	NBA	DEN	NOH	NBA
this game	15.8	15.9	15.5	101.1	105.6	106.4
season	14.4	16.6		109.5	105.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		106.0	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	17.5	16.4	16.2	15.8
NOH	13.7	16.8	16.4	17.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	34	34	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.19	12	-14	26	14.2	16.6	-2.40	15.9	15.9	0.07
Nene	59	60	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.04	7	-9	16	15.8	15.6	0.27	16.8	14.1	2.65
Anthony Carter	26	26	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.31	-10	8	-18	17.3	15.1	2.17	16.5	15.6	0.90
Carmelo Anthony	72	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.33	7	-9	16	15.4	17.0	-1.60	15.8	16.3	-0.46
Linas Kleiza	39	36	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.40	1	-3	4	16.8	15.0	1.81	16.9	15.3	1.60
Chauncey Billups	80	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-3	4	15.0	20.5	-5.46	15.3	20.0	-4.73
Kenyon Martin	75	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.45	0	-2	2	15.3	17.9	-2.69	15.2	19.1	-3.92
Chris Andersen	31	29	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.04	-20	18	-38	16.2	15.5	0.67	14.8	16.4	-1.58
J.R. Smith	44	42	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.62	-8	6	-14	17.3	14.3	3.05	16.7	15.2	1.48

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	52	51	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.21	18	-16	34	14.6	17.6	-3.00	16.0	15.4	0.65
Chris Paul	88	89	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-1	4	15.8	22.0	-6.24	15.5	23.3	-7.84
James Posey	43	46	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.14	10	-8	18	14.8	16.9	-2.12	15.0	16.5	-1.41
Rasual Butler	77	79	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.37	0	2	-2	15.6	17.7	-2.09	15.5	17.5	-2.08
Antonio Daniels	24	24	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	-4	10	18.1	15.1	3.03	18.8	14.7	4.12
David West	74	74	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.49	-11	13	-24	17.1	10.1	7.02	16.2	14.0	2.18
Peja Stojakovic	62	64	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.32	-7	9	-16	15.3	17.2	-1.86	14.9	17.6	-2.67
Tyson Chandler	30	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.18	-9	11	-20	17.2	15.2	1.95	16.1	15.6	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.23,0.31,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.68,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.96,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 101, ORL 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.68,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.57,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.71,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,1	92.5%
POR 85, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.63,0.71,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.84,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.2%
SAS 76, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.0%