NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	8.1 [304]		MVP	Mohamed Bamba (ORL): +14.5%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	3.0 [284]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -31.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14	0.16	0.02	0.04	14	74%	0.22	3	-0.08	7	71%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
Bam Adebayo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	45%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	9	38%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.02
Hassan Whiteside	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	15	39%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14	-0.16	-0.04	-0.06	13	30%	-0.02	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.32	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.32	-0.03	-0.24	0.05	21	47%	-0.03	3	-0.29	3	100%	0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mohamed Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.01	8	72%	0.15	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.09	0.01	11	43%	0.09	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	10	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.02	18	62%	0.15	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	22%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	12	41%	-0.01	4	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23	-0.23	-0.07	-0.12	0.04	15	36%	-0.20	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.16

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	27.6	15.3	28.4	2.5	46.2	148.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +30.4%

MIA -22.0%

MIA -4.0%

ORL +38.0%

ORL +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	13.4	14.3	14.3	97.1	100.0	109.3
season	14.8	14.9		106.3	107.2
opponent	14.3	14.3		107.2	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.2	14.3	12.9	14.4	13.4
ORL	15.1	12.4	15.3	14.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Jones Jr.	38	37	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-7	11	13.1	13.7	-0.60	14.8	14.0	0.77
Goran Dragic	71	71	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.57	20	-23	43	12.3	16.0	-3.72	15.3	11.9	3.40
Bam Adebayo	47	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.12	-6	3	-9	13.3	13.5	-0.17	13.9	14.6	-0.68
Hassan Whiteside	71	70	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.26	4	-7	11	13.4	13.5	-0.03	15.2	12.3	2.88
Rodney McGruder	67	70	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.31	4	-7	11	12.4	15.3	-2.94	14.2	14.5	-0.31
Dwyane Wade	60	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	4	-11	13.7	13.1	0.59	13.4	15.3	-1.86
Tyler Johnson	51	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	10	-23	14.7	12.2	2.42	13.9	14.6	-0.62
Josh Richardson	79	80	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.50	-5	2	-7	13.9	11.8	2.15	14.5	13.6	0.88
Kelly Olynyk	36	36	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.18	-16	13	-29	14.9	12.6	2.31	11.8	15.6	-3.75

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerian Grant	57	54	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.52	11	-8	19	13.3	15.4	-2.17	14.4	12.4	2.07
Jonathon Simmons	73	72	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.41	12	-9	21	13.5	16.1	-2.57	14.0	12.2	1.71
Aaron Gordon	82	82	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.47	9	-6	15	14.6	12.9	1.77	13.4	13.5	-0.03
Terrence Ross	55	54	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.10	16	-13	29	13.3	15.3	-2.02	14.5	12.3	2.18
Mohamed Bamba	53	53	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.18	13	-10	23	13.7	14.8	-1.15	14.4	12.4	2.00
Jonathan Isaac	39	40	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.18	-7	10	-17	15.2	13.7	1.55	12.6	14.0	-1.35
Evan Fournier	52	53	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.36	-14	17	-31	15.0	13.5	1.48	12.3	14.6	-2.38
D.J. Augustin	47	49	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.13	-8	11	-19	15.4	13.3	2.17	12.6	14.2	-1.59
Nikola Vucevic	62	63	-0.53	1.03	-1.56	-0.03	-17	20	-37	14.8	13.5	1.23	12.4	15.0	-2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.68,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.57,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.71,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 87, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.46,0.48,0.71,0.76,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,0.96,1	93.2%
PHI 102, TOR 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.46,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%
DEN 93, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.23,0.31,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.68,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.96,0.97,1	92.5%