NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	4.7 [890]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +17.8%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	1.1 [455]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -11.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.01	-0.03	20	72%	0.26	5	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.02	0.03	12	83%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	9	73%	0.14	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	8	62%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
James Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	12	46%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	52%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	12	69%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	14	55%	0.04	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	15	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	13	46%	-0.05	4	-0.07	9	56%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	3.5	31.4	19.8	28.8	2.8	33.0	151.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +59.6%

ATL -0.9%

ATL -1.4%

ATL -7.1%

ATL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	17.3	15.3	15.5	120.0	106.9	106.4
season	16.0	15.8		105.9	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		106.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	13.8	20.4	20.2	17.3
ATL	17.5	16.3	13.9	13.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	66	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.13	20	-5	25	18.1	15.0	3.08	15.8	13.7	2.09
Udonis Haslem	44	44	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	-2	19	19.4	15.2	4.12	15.5	15.0	0.45
Daequan Cook	66	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	4	7	17.1	17.7	-0.56	14.8	16.4	-1.55
Dwyane Wade	72	70	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.04	14	1	13	17.4	16.6	0.81	15.2	15.3	-0.05
Jamario Moon	54	50	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	5	5	16.3	18.7	-2.44	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Mario Chalmers	41	42	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	10	-5	17.6	17.0	0.56	15.9	14.6	1.31
James Jones	37	37	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.06	5	10	-5	18.3	16.5	1.77	15.4	15.2	0.22
Michael Beasley	46	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	17	-19	15.2	19.4	-4.12	15.0	15.5	-0.45
Jamaal Magloire	24	21	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.19	-5	20	-25	15.0	18.1	-3.08	13.7	15.8	-2.09

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	29	30	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.19	5	-20	25	14.4	15.7	-1.31	16.2	17.8	-1.58
Mario West	1	2	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-14	13	9.0	15.3	-6.33	2.0	17.6	-15.60
Ronald Murray	54	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-14	13	14.8	16.0	-1.20	16.5	18.8	-2.32
Marvin Williams	36	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-10	5	14.9	15.5	-0.57	17.3	17.2	0.04
Maurice Evans	29	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-7	-1	16.3	14.7	1.53	18.5	16.7	1.86
Joe Johnson	64	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.00	-14	-1	-13	15.6	14.2	1.41	16.8	18.4	-1.58
Josh Smith	75	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.02	-15	0	-15	15.5	13.6	1.94	17.9	13.8	4.11
Al Horford	69	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.08	-19	4	-23	15.4	14.6	0.81	17.4	16.5	0.94
Mike Bibby	78	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.02	-17	2	-19	15.0	17.1	-2.07	17.7	13.0	4.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 109, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0	95.8%
SAS 96, SAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.2,0.07,0.04,0.05,0	95.6%
SAS 95, VAN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%