NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	114		Excitement	3.1 [1163]		MVP	Rafer Alston (ORL): +11.8%
Philadelphia 76ers	89		Comeback	1.2 [389]		LVP	Willie Green (PHI): -6.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.00	-0.02	16	62%	0.12	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	0.00	0.04	9	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.02	8	71%	0.13	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.01	22	55%	0.11	3	-0.05	9	78%	0.02
Tony Battie	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	8	61%	0.06	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.07	10	58%	0.00	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.03	12	59%	0.08	4	-0.05	5	100%	0.01
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	13	63%	0.06	3	-0.05	12	83%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.07	16	56%	0.01	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	12	33%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.6	33.5	16.3	25.4	1.8	33.2	137.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +41.5%

ORL +1.9%

ORL +1.5%

ORL +6.9%

PHI -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	PHI	NBA	ORL	PHI	NBA
this game	16.6	15.1	15.5	125.3	97.8	106.4
season	15.3	15.5		107.3	105.3
opponent	15.9	15.8		105.5	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.1	15.2	18.3	16.9	16.6
PHI	17.4	13.6	15.1	14.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	74	73	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.18	25	0	25	16.9	15.3	1.58	15.6	12.9	2.71
Marcin Gortat	78	78	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.38	29	-4	33	16.3	18.2	-1.92	15.3	13.8	1.51
Rafer Alston	68	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	9	7	17.0	15.4	1.54	15.1	14.9	0.26
Hedo Turkoglu	56	55	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.32	25	0	25	15.6	18.1	-2.49	16.2	13.3	2.87
JJ Redick	56	58	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.14	19	6	13	16.9	16.0	0.95	16.0	13.5	2.53
Mickael Pietrus	59	59	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.14	11	14	-3	17.0	15.7	1.28	13.9	17.2	-3.22
Anthony Johnson	34	33	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	21	-17	16.0	16.9	-0.93	13.5	16.0	-2.53
Tony Battie	30	31	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	29	-33	16.6	16.6	-0.02	13.3	16.0	-2.74

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	11	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-29	33	14.0	15.2	-1.21	16.4	16.6	-0.25
Donyell Marshall	7	6	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.19	7	-32	39	11.4	15.4	-3.94	18.3	16.5	1.87
Marreese Speights	27	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.24	-11	-14	3	13.2	15.9	-2.67	16.9	16.4	0.50
Royal Ivey	16	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-20	15	12.7	15.6	-2.81	16.8	16.5	0.26
Lou Williams	56	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.23	-16	-9	-7	14.3	16.3	-1.94	16.7	16.3	0.39
Willie Green	38	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	-12	-1	15.8	14.6	1.20	16.3	16.8	-0.55
Andre Iguodala	84	84	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.09	-16	-9	-7	15.2	13.0	2.24	16.6	16.9	-0.30
Samuel Dalembert	57	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.41	-28	3	-31	16.5	12.7	3.77	15.7	18.0	-2.26
Andre Miller	83	83	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.20	-25	0	-25	15.5	10.9	4.59	16.6	16.4	0.23
Thaddeus Young	76	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.10	-22	-3	-19	15.2	14.3	0.96	17.0	14.4	2.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 126, SAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
PHX 94, CHI 74	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
LAC 101, HOU 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%