NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	104		Excitement	11.0 [38]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +74.2%
Boston Celtics	106		Comeback	14.8 [148]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -28.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.52	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.36,0.36,0.52	0.04	0.45	-0.03	21	48%	0.54	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.19
Kirk Hinrich	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.02	-0.00	12	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Tyrus Thomas	0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Joakim Noah	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.07	0.00	15	47%	-0.04	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.25
Derrick Rose	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.27,-0.34,-0.41,-0.41,-0.28,-0.28	-0.13	-0.17	-0.01	16	44%	0.08	6	-0.36	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,0.03,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.36,0.74	0.74	0.04	0.72	0.02	22	53%	0.83	2	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.03	0.00	11	70%	0.18	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.01	0.14	-0.01	13	53%	0.20	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	53%	0.06	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.13,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	22	58%	0.22	4	-0.21	4	50%	0.01
Tony Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	5	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.3	3.4	30.3	20.5	30.2	3.0	39.5	2.0	29.8	184.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +88.7%

CHI -30.9%

CHI -20.7%

BOS +13.8%

CHI -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	16.1	16.0	15.5	104.0	108.2	106.4
season	14.8	15.8		106.3	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.7		101.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	14.8	14.0	16.6	19.5	16.0	16.1
BOS	14.6	17.3	16.9	15.6	15.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joakim Noah	81	77	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-6	10	16.5	14.6	1.88	16.0	16.0	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	2	3	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	0	-2	10.5	16.2	-5.71	7.7	16.3	-8.62
Ben Gordon	94	92	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	2	-6	16.9	4.2	12.70	16.1	15.0	1.09
Brad Miller	33	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.33	1	-3	4	15.5	16.4	-0.96	17.4	15.3	2.09
Derrick Rose	85	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.44	0	-2	2	16.2	15.8	0.35	16.1	15.5	0.65
Kirk Hinrich	61	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.57	4	-6	10	15.1	17.7	-2.57	15.8	16.3	-0.56
Tyrus Thomas	51	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.17	-10	8	-18	15.6	16.6	-0.92	15.2	17.0	-1.89
John Salmons	93	91	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	1	-4	16.2	14.4	1.80	16.1	14.7	1.41

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	74	75	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.26	16	-14	30	15.8	16.7	-0.97	17.2	12.7	4.51
Rajon Rondo	90	93	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.44	3	-1	4	16.0	16.5	-0.52	16.2	14.4	1.80
Paul Pierce	94	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	16.0	16.0	0.02	16.1	17.2	-1.20
Tony Allen	30	31	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.46	-3	5	-8	15.2	16.4	-1.18	17.9	15.3	2.66
Kendrick Perkins	88	91	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.37	-2	4	-6	16.1	15.5	0.58	16.0	17.3	-1.36
Ray Allen	48	48	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.00	10	-8	18	16.5	15.5	1.02	16.8	15.4	1.37
Stephon Marbury	24	25	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.27	-1	3	-4	15.1	16.3	-1.19	13.8	16.9	-3.07
Eddie House	20	20	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	5	-8	15.9	16.0	-0.09	13.6	16.7	-3.06
Brian Scalabrine	22	21	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.01	-12	14	-26	17.8	15.5	2.26	13.0	16.9	-3.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.42,0.46,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 119, TOR 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.73,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.45,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.58,1	91.8%
WAS 110, DET 115	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.57,0.58,1	89.4%
POR 95, LAL 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.27,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.23,0.54,0.69,0.92,0.71,0.73,1	89.2%