NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	110		Excitement	10.2 [52]		MVP	Charlie Villanueva (DET): +52.8%
Detroit Pistons	115		Comeback	11.9 [154]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -35.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.41,0.41	0.15	0.26	0.00	10	78%	0.41	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Cartier Martin	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andray Blatche	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.05,0.15,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08	-0.04	0.12	-0.00	22	42%	0.16	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Trevor Booker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.06	-0.01	13	67%	0.21	3	-0.18	4	50%	-0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.11	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Lester Hudson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.36	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.36	-0.07	-0.32	-0.03	18	53%	-0.02	6	-0.34	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.37,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53	0.53	0.18	0.34	-0.01	18	66%	0.53	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,0.19,0.33	0.33	0.08	0.26	0.01	21	56%	0.37	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.02	5	75%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	8	75%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	6	77%	0.09	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	11	60%	0.11	3	-0.13	3	67%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	13	25%	-0.23	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.3	1.7	31.7	16.8	24.2	1.8	34.1	1.6	21.0	160.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -11.1%

DET +13.6%

DET +0.1%

DET +39.5%

DET +7.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DET	NBA	WAS	DET	NBA
this game	15.2	17.6	15.5	111.1	121.1	105.7
season	15.1	16.7		100.9	106.4
opponent	15.2	15.2		110.1	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
WAS	15.0	13.9	14.5	19.1	12.4	15.2
DET	17.9	17.4	19.1	16.9	16.0	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cartier Martin	28	27	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.10	5	-10	15	14.9	15.3	-0.42	17.7	17.6	0.14
Trevor Booker	17	16	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.02	7	-12	19	13.5	15.5	-2.01	20.0	17.2	2.84
Lester Hudson	1	0	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.02	-3	-2	-1	1.0	15.3	-14.34	0.0	17.6	-17.64
Hilton Armstrong	20	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	1	-7	15.0	15.2	-0.18	16.5	17.9	-1.39
Al Thornton	60	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	1	-7	15.4	14.8	0.57	17.5	17.8	-0.27
Gilbert Arenas	80	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-8	11	15.2	15.3	-0.09	18.1	15.7	2.44
JaVale McGee	78	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.38	1	-6	7	15.3	14.6	0.73	18.2	15.7	2.46
Nick Young	55	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-5	5	15.1	15.3	-0.27	17.3	18.2	-0.86
Andray Blatche	83	79	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.34	-12	7	-19	15.4	14.3	1.05	17.2	20.0	-2.84
Kirk Hinrich	73	70	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.41	-14	9	-23	15.5	14.3	1.15	17.2	18.8	-1.63

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	58	61	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.41	16	-11	27	17.9	17.2	0.74	15.2	15.2	0.06
Rodney Stuckey	65	68	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.46	14	-9	23	17.2	18.7	-1.50	15.2	15.1	0.14
Tayshaun Prince	63	67	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.44	14	-9	23	17.1	18.7	-1.58	15.3	14.9	0.47
Jason Maxiell	66	68	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.44	10	-5	15	17.2	18.6	-1.41	15.5	14.6	0.84
Charlie Villanueva	66	66	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.45	3	2	1	17.3	18.3	-1.01	15.3	14.9	0.38
Ben Wallace	36	40	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.11	6	-1	7	18.5	17.1	1.43	14.7	15.5	-0.74
Ben Gordon	37	39	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.06	-9	14	-23	17.2	17.9	-0.74	14.9	15.4	-0.53
Tracy McGrady	32	32	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.08	-9	14	-23	18.7	17.1	1.58	14.9	15.3	-0.47
Will Bynum	30	31	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	-0.11	-9	14	-23	18.7	17.2	1.50	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Greg Monroe	22	23	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	-0.06	-11	16	-27	18.4	17.4	1.00	15.3	15.2	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 95, LAL 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.27,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.23,0.54,0.69,0.92,0.71,0.73,1	91.0%
IND 95, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.35,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.16,0.32,0.16,0.46,0.61,0.46,0.77,0.85,1	90.5%
PHX 98, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.6,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.09,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,1	90.0%