NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	115		Excitement	10.1 [62]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +101.8%
Boston Celtics	118		Comeback	9.4 [203]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -17.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	1.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.58,0.56,0.66,1.02	0.33	0.70	0.01	24	74%	1.02	0	0.00	9	89%	0.05
Kirk Hinrich	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.01	2	117%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	68%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Linton Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	0.00	17	44%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	11	45%	0.04	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.10	0.01	8	67%	0.04	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,1.01	1.01	0.23	0.78	-0.01	18	71%	1.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Glen Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.10	-0.01	21	58%	0.22	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.03
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.01	9	70%	0.19	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.03
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	18	43%	0.02	2	-0.09	8	62%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.12	-0.02	19	44%	-0.09	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	2.8	37.0	20.4	28.4	3.5	38.4	160.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +8.0%

CHI -10.9%

BOS +33.6%

BOS +18.9%

BOS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	13.6	16.7	15.5	119.8	125.5	106.4
season	14.8	15.8		106.3	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.7		101.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	13.8	14.0	12.8	13.6
BOS	13.7	16.2	18.7	18.8	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	73	71	0.25	-0.75	0.99	-0.28	18	-21	39	13.1	15.3	-2.25	17.0	15.9	1.06
Linton Johnson	3	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-4	5	9.7	13.8	-4.10	8.3	17.0	-8.66
Lindsey Hunter	16	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-6	9	15.2	13.3	1.86	12.6	17.7	-5.07
Ben Gordon	88	85	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-2	1	13.3	16.9	-3.53	16.7	17.1	-0.44
Derrick Rose	66	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.32	0	-3	3	13.8	13.3	0.54	18.2	13.6	4.62
Joakim Noah	79	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	1	-5	13.1	16.1	-3.02	16.9	16.1	0.81
Kirk Hinrich	38	38	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.39	-4	1	-5	12.8	14.2	-1.36	17.3	16.3	1.01
John Salmons	80	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.32	-7	4	-11	13.9	12.3	1.59	16.2	19.1	-2.86
Tyrus Thomas	37	38	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.11	-21	18	-39	16.2	12.1	4.11	16.6	16.8	-0.22

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	80	82	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.28	20	-17	37	17.0	15.0	2.01	13.7	13.4	0.33
Rajon Rondo	78	81	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.32	17	-14	31	16.5	17.6	-1.10	13.7	13.5	0.12
Paul Pierce	87	87	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.42	5	-2	7	17.0	13.7	3.24	13.8	11.8	2.05
Ray Allen	74	78	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	-2	7	16.9	15.8	1.10	13.2	15.5	-2.29
Kendrick Perkins	60	63	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	-9	21	17.5	15.2	2.31	14.1	12.8	1.34
Eddie House	27	29	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.34	-6	9	-15	15.7	17.1	-1.36	13.8	13.6	0.28
Tony Allen	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	3	-3	0.0	16.7	-16.71	4.0	13.7	-9.74
Leon Powe	17	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.07	-6	9	-15	15.4	17.0	-1.59	14.2	13.5	0.74
Mikki Moore	25	23	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.22	-17	20	-37	15.7	17.1	-1.41	13.2	13.8	-0.61
Stephon Marbury	22	20	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	0.08	-15	18	-33	15.6	17.0	-1.41	13.0	13.8	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.4,0.53,0.62,0.16,0.16,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 93, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.12,0.22,0.58,1	90.7%
MIA 95, MEM 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.53,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.35,0.38,0.61,0.29,0.55,0.83,1	90.0%
MEM 92, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.33,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.42,1	89.4%