NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	92		Excitement	6.5 [481]		MVP	P.J. Brown (BOS): +27.3%
Boston Celtics	97		Comeback	1.0 [1002]		LVP	Wally Szczerbiak (CLE): -9.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.22	0.15	0.04	-0.02	29	58%	0.25	2	-0.03	19	74%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	55%	0.04	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	8	40%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	41%	-0.02	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Delonte West	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	8	68%	0.12	6	-0.18	6	83%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.17	0.00	4	100%	0.27	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.20	0.02	-0.00	23	71%	0.37	4	-0.15	12	92%	0.04
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	1	125%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	0	67%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	43%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	4	67%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	11	36%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	4.3	44.5	19.7	33.2	3.7	48.3	182.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +28.6%

BOS +2.4%

BOS +16.4%

BOS +2.7%

CLE -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	BOS	NBA	CLE	BOS	NBA
this game	17.9	15.8	15.4	109.5	111.5	105.7
season	16.4	15.6		104.0	108.0
opponent	15.9	15.2		98.3	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	18.2	17.8	17.9	17.6	17.9
BOS	17.0	12.9	17.2	16.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anderson Varejao	21	22	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-8	11	17.5	18.0	-0.56	14.9	16.2	-1.29
Damon Jones	19	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-6	7	17.2	18.1	-0.95	12.6	16.8	-4.13
Joe Smith	30	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-1	-3	16.5	18.7	-2.22	14.2	16.8	-2.54
Sasha Pavlovic	61	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.44	5	-10	15	18.0	17.6	0.45	16.1	15.0	1.07
Wally Szczerbiak	29	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	9	-23	17.6	18.1	-0.52	15.0	16.2	-1.17
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	49	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.32	0	-5	5	19.1	16.2	2.90	17.8	13.1	4.68
LeBron James	82	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-5	5	17.7	24.5	-6.77	15.9	12.5	3.41
Ben Wallace	49	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.04	-13	8	-21	18.8	16.7	2.12	16.6	14.8	1.79
Delonte West	80	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	-2	-1	17.6	23.2	-5.62	15.8	16.4	-0.61

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	80	77	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.33	10	-5	15	15.8	16.4	-0.65	17.7	19.6	-1.83
Kevin Garnett	75	72	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.35	8	-3	11	15.9	15.5	0.38	18.0	17.2	0.85
Eddie House	30	30	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-8	21	12.3	17.7	-5.44	17.0	18.4	-1.39
P.J. Brown	36	34	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.33	-2	7	-9	17.6	14.6	3.00	17.5	18.1	-0.61
Ray Allen	50	52	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	4	-3	16.6	14.8	1.72	17.8	18.0	-0.12
James Posey	51	46	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.26	-3	8	-11	14.9	17.2	-2.28	17.8	17.9	-0.10
Kendrick Perkins	35	36	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	-2	9	15.9	15.7	0.19	18.7	17.3	1.45
Rajon Rondo	67	62	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	11	-17	16.6	13.2	3.41	17.9	17.9	0.04
Leon Powe	11	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	8	-11	15.7	15.8	-0.11	19.4	17.7	1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.8,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.72,0.81,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.55,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 82, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.84,0.99,1	92.4%
PHX 112, HOU 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.71,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.89,0.68,0.74,1	92.4%
GSW 74, SAS 76	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.71,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.85,1	92.3%