NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	5.1 [770]		MVP	Pau Gasol (LAL): +29.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	128		Comeback	2.1 [835]		LVP	Marcus Camby (DEN): -19.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Linas Kleiza	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.02	0.02	13	79%	0.20	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.00	8	71%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.05	24	49%	0.00	2	-0.05	13	54%	-0.07
Carmelo Anthony	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	26	48%	-0.02	3	-0.06	10	80%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	28%	-0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.02	0.00	9	20%	-0.11	4	-0.09	2	0%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.01	20	75%	0.32	3	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.01	8	80%	0.11	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	26	48%	0.07	1	-0.02	14	93%	0.04
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	14	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	6	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	3.6	33.1	20.5	34.0	3.4	39.6	161.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +31.2%

LAL +13.7%

DEN -4.1%

LAL +6.8%

LAL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	12.8	15.0	15.4	111.8	121.9	105.7
season	13.3	14.6		108.2	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.2		104.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	13.2	14.4	10.3	12.8
LAL	15.3	14.0	14.4	16.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	47	46	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.13	14	-28	42	11.8	13.6	-1.77	15.5	14.7	0.80
J.R. Smith	50	51	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.14	5	-19	24	11.4	14.1	-2.68	15.7	14.4	1.28
Linas Kleiza	80	81	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.08	-1	-13	12	12.8	12.5	0.28	15.5	13.5	2.04
Allen Iverson	88	90	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-10	6	12.8	12.6	0.14	15.3	13.5	1.82
Kenyon Martin	63	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	0	-14	12.8	12.7	0.08	15.5	14.2	1.28
Anthony Carter	39	42	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.19	-24	10	-34	12.9	12.7	0.30	13.5	16.0	-2.55
Carmelo Anthony	80	82	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.17	-16	2	-18	12.8	12.6	0.16	15.0	15.2	-0.19
Marcus Camby	63	66	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	0.14	-30	16	-46	14.3	10.3	3.94	13.8	17.1	-3.22

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	63	61	0.74	-0.24	0.97	-0.11	29	-15	44	14.3	16.1	-1.78	14.3	10.5	3.81
Pau Gasol	97	95	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.03	22	-8	30	14.8	17.5	-2.68	12.9	10.3	2.66
Lamar Odom	86	82	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.09	24	-10	34	14.7	16.5	-1.83	13.4	10.1	3.25
Vladimir Radmanovic	44	42	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.01	16	-2	18	15.3	14.8	0.46	12.8	12.7	0.04
Kobe Bryant	80	79	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.29	3	11	-8	15.2	14.6	0.62	12.8	12.6	0.26
Luke Walton	58	58	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	10	-6	14.7	15.5	-0.83	12.8	12.7	0.19
Sasha Vujacic	47	45	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	19	-24	15.6	14.6	1.03	11.4	13.9	-2.48
Ronny Turiaf	8	7	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	22	-30	17.5	14.8	2.68	10.3	12.9	-2.66
Jordan Farmar	42	41	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.20	-15	29	-44	16.1	14.3	1.78	10.5	14.3	-3.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, ORL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.28,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
ORL 103, CLE 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.85,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
MEM 110, CHI 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.91,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.6%