NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	106		Excitement	7.7 [272]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +36.1%
Toronto Raptors	94		Comeback	2.5 [334]		LVP	T.J. Ford (TOR): -15.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.31	0.14	0.18	0.01	19	63%	0.33	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0.23	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.05,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.06	0.19	0.02	10	73%	0.34	4	-0.11	6	67%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.01	7	67%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.02	12	63%	0.10	3	-0.12	6	17%	-0.10
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.19,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.08	0.02	12	53%	0.18	7	-0.22	10	90%	0.06
Keyon Dooling	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.18	0.17	-0.02	26	63%	0.42	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.00	9	63%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	13	46%	0.15	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maceo Baston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	38%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	7	31%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	5	40%	-0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	16	36%	-0.13	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.7	33.5	20.6	29.2	3.4	35.5	152.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +67.8%

ORL +2.3%

TOR -3.0%

TOR -17.8%

ORL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	15.4	112.8	100.0	105.7
season	15.1	15.6		109.9	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.6	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.3	17.5	14.1	17.0	15.6
TOR	14.5	15.2	14.7	15.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	64	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	1	10	16.3	14.2	2.08	15.0	15.0	0.03
Dwight Howard	78	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-3	18	14.6	20.7	-6.07	14.8	15.8	-0.95
Rashard Lewis	79	80	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.05	14	-2	16	15.7	15.4	0.30	15.2	13.8	1.41
Hedo Turkoglu	81	79	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	5	2	15.9	14.3	1.56	15.1	14.3	0.78
Jameer Nelson	68	71	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.02	11	1	10	15.1	17.0	-1.87	15.1	14.7	0.45
Keyon Dooling	26	24	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.13	1	11	-10	17.0	15.1	1.87	14.5	15.2	-0.66
Maurice Evans	58	58	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	8	-4	14.6	17.4	-2.86	14.6	15.6	-1.05
Marcin Gortat	16	17	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	15	-18	20.7	14.6	6.07	15.8	14.8	0.95

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	30	30	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-17	22	16.5	14.3	2.27	18.7	14.2	4.53
Kris Humphries	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-11	10	11.0	15.0	-4.03	0.0	15.6	-15.65
Maceo Baston	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	11.0	15.0	-4.03	0.0	15.6	-15.65
Joey Graham	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-11	10	11.0	15.0	-4.03	0.0	15.6	-15.65
Jamario Moon	40	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-11	10	14.4	15.4	-0.94	14.4	16.6	-2.13
Andrea Bargnani	39	38	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.15	-8	-4	-4	15.2	14.9	0.32	14.2	16.7	-2.50
Carlos Delfino	33	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-13	14	17.1	13.8	3.29	18.6	13.9	4.66
Jose Calderon	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-8	4	15.2	14.8	0.45	16.3	15.2	1.14
Jason Kapono	66	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	-5	-2	14.7	15.6	-0.93	16.4	13.9	2.50
T.J. Ford	63	63	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.07	-15	3	-18	14.3	16.3	-1.94	14.6	17.8	-3.17
Chris Bosh	80	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.13	-13	1	-14	15.0	14.9	0.07	14.9	20.5	-5.58
Anthony Parker	75	76	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.10	-16	4	-20	14.4	17.3	-2.85	15.2	17.7	-2.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.38,0.28,0.1,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 106, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.15,0.06,0.02,0	93.1%
UTA 84, VAN 75	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.04,0	92.4%
SEA 95, IND 86	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.77,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.35,0.39,0.53,0.29,0.15,0.17,0	92.3%