NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	7.7 [339]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +28.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	101		Comeback	3.1 [246]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -16.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.29	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.23	0.08	0.02	12	82%	0.31	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.14	0.02	9	65%	0.25	3	-0.09	5	80%	-0.03
Justise Winslow	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.03	0.10	-0.01	5	60%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.07	0.08	-0.02	11	35%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Wayne Ellington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	7	69%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	16	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	13	52%	0.06	6	-0.22	3	67%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.01	0.02	5	120%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.17	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.08
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	-0.00	-0.04	15	49%	0.07	1	-0.02	15	53%	-0.07
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.06	22	57%	0.10	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	13	32%	-0.08	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	1.8	30.2	14.8	28.0	0.8	36.0	140.5
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.6%

MIL -5.5%

MIA +27.6%

MIL -9.7%

MIL -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.8	13.5	14.7	112.8	105.2	107.5
season	15.1	14.3		105.4	108.5
opponent	15.4	14.6		108.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	16.9	19.4	17.1	16.8
MIL	15.3	10.8	14.0	14.3	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	65	68	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.23	22	-17	39	16.8	16.9	-0.18	14.5	11.3	3.13
James Johnson	60	61	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.25	7	-2	9	15.5	19.2	-3.71	13.7	13.3	0.36
Hassan Whiteside	62	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	-2	9	15.9	18.5	-2.56	13.8	13.1	0.72
Justise Winslow	53	53	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.47	-3	8	-11	17.3	16.2	1.13	12.6	14.7	-2.09
Wayne Ellington	53	55	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	6	-7	17.8	15.6	2.21	13.4	13.7	-0.25
Kelly Olynyk	31	30	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	6	-7	19.1	15.7	3.37	13.5	13.5	-0.01
Goran Dragic	67	67	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.36	-9	14	-23	16.1	18.5	-2.35	13.0	14.8	-1.84
Bam Adebayo	34	36	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.12	-2	7	-9	19.2	15.5	3.71	13.0	13.8	-0.82
Derrick Jones Jr.	45	46	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.12	5	0	5	15.8	17.7	-1.89	14.1	13.0	1.09

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sterling Brown	25	23	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-9	13	14.2	13.3	0.94	18.0	16.4	1.52
Matthew Dellavedova	36	35	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.09	5	-10	15	12.9	13.9	-1.04	18.0	16.1	1.90
Malcolm Brogdon	58	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-5	5	12.4	15.3	-2.94	16.6	17.2	-0.67
John Henson	66	65	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.35	5	-10	15	13.5	13.6	-0.04	16.9	16.6	0.37
Thon Maker	28	27	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	4	-13	14.1	13.3	0.85	17.7	16.4	1.31
Khris Middleton	83	81	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-3	1	13.6	13.2	0.45	16.2	20.3	-4.06
Tony Snell	45	43	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	5	-15	14.7	12.5	2.20	18.2	15.6	2.58
Giannis Antetokounmpo	77	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	4	-13	13.4	13.9	-0.51	16.5	18.3	-1.82
Eric Bledsoe	62	61	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	4	-13	13.7	13.3	0.34	15.6	19.1	-3.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.15,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 106, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.38,0.28,0.1,0,0	93.1%
DEN 94, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.09,0	92.3%
SAC 98, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.15,0	91.6%