NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	5.8 [665]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +10.0%
Utah Jazz	79		Comeback	1.3 [777]		LVP	Paul Millsap (UTA): -9.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.06	0.04	10	63%	0.14	1	-0.04	15	80%	0.03
Michael Finley	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	10	57%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	55%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.05	-0.01	13	50%	0.08	5	-0.09	12	58%	-0.08
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	19	38%	-0.02	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	16	56%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	21	55%	0.12	5	-0.14	7	71%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	7	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	4	25%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	2.7	35.0	19.0	26.3	3.3	36.6	153.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA -7.5%

SAS +17.7%

SAS +12.7%

SAS +22.0%

SAS +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	18.1	15.0	15.4	103.4	91.9	104.5
season	16.2	15.9		107.5	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.4		104.9	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	15.5	22.5	17.7	18.1
UTA	13.3	17.3	15.4	14.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	66	65	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.05	16	-4	20	17.2	20.6	-3.38	14.2	17.7	-3.51
Tim Duncan	66	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.11	14	-2	16	18.6	16.5	2.08	15.8	12.3	3.47
Fabricio Oberto	68	68	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	1	10	18.1	17.8	0.33	14.7	16.2	-1.53
Jacque Vaughn	20	20	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.05	10	2	8	16.5	18.5	-1.95	17.0	14.4	2.66
Michael Finley	49	49	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.04	8	4	4	19.0	16.9	2.04	16.8	12.6	4.15
Bruce Bowen	61	58	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.19	0	12	-12	18.2	17.6	0.62	14.5	16.1	-1.68
Tony Parker	68	66	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	10	-8	18.5	16.5	1.95	14.4	17.0	-2.66
Francisco Elson	2	1	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	11	-10	12.0	18.2	-6.20	6.0	15.1	-9.12
Robert Horry	40	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	14	-16	17.4	18.6	-1.25	14.4	15.5	-1.06

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dee Brown	3	4	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-13	14	9.3	15.2	-5.88	20.0	18.0	2.04
Jarron Collins	7	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-13	14	14.1	15.1	-0.95	19.1	17.9	1.17
Gordan Giricek	19	21	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-13	14	12.6	15.7	-3.12	17.9	18.1	-0.26
Deron Williams	71	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.16	-3	-9	6	14.4	18.1	-3.78	18.0	18.1	-0.08
Carlos Boozer	69	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-9	6	14.9	15.5	-0.57	18.3	16.9	1.46
Matt Harpring	34	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-4	-4	15.7	14.6	1.10	17.2	18.6	-1.47
Paul Millsap	33	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	0	-12	15.4	14.8	0.62	16.7	18.8	-2.05
Andrei Kirilenko	65	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	0	-12	15.5	13.6	1.84	18.0	18.3	-0.34
Mehmet Okur	63	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	-2	-8	15.0	15.0	0.08	18.3	17.5	0.78
Derek Fisher	66	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.12	-15	3	-18	15.9	12.1	3.79	18.6	16.3	2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.23,0.07,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 115, LAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.8%
CLE 102, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.15,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.7%
DET 110, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0	93.7%