NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	101		Excitement	5.8 [683]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +20.8%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	2.6 [680]		LVP	Steve Nash (PHX): -17.8%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.01	6	100%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	21	59%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.03	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	11	64%	-0.02
James Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.03	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	7	56%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Leandro Barbosa	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	40%	-0.00	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Steve Nash	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.27,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.21,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	17	43%	-0.02	5	-0.16	3	67%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.19	0.03	0.01	19	63%	0.21	0	0.00	14	64%	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.01	19	53%	0.20	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	6	71%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	18	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.05	0.04	10	39%	-0.10	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	2.7	36.1	19.4	30.6	3.6	37.4	160.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +0.5%

SAS +16.0%

SAS +11.2%

SAS +18.1%

SAS +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	SAS	NBA	PHX	SAS	NBA
this game	12.7	16.8	15.4	104.1	110.2	104.5
season	13.8	16.2		112.2	107.5
opponent	15.4	16.0		98.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	11.3	15.0	13.3	11.1	12.7
SAS	18.7	13.8	16.7	18.2	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	14	14	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-5	3	10.1	13.1	-2.98	19.0	16.5	2.54
Raja Bell	60	60	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-8	9	12.4	13.1	-0.67	17.4	15.9	1.56
Leandro Barbosa	58	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-6	5	11.8	13.9	-2.10	16.3	17.6	-1.23
Steve Nash	79	79	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-9	11	12.7	12.8	-0.18	16.7	17.5	-0.80
Amar'e Stoudemire	42	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-5	3	13.0	12.5	0.46	16.6	17.0	-0.47
Kurt Thomas	73	72	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-7	7	12.9	11.9	1.03	17.0	16.3	0.76
Boris Diaw	45	46	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	6	-19	13.7	11.8	1.90	16.6	17.0	-0.45
Shawn Marion	90	91	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.22	-14	7	-21	12.8	11.0	1.82	16.7	18.9	-2.19

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	81	81	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-3	13	16.6	17.9	-1.35	12.6	13.1	-0.45
Brent Barry	21	19	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.05	15	-8	23	16.0	17.0	-0.99	13.4	12.5	0.91
Tim Duncan	84	83	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	2	3	16.5	19.0	-2.54	13.1	10.1	2.98
Tony Parker	84	83	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	2	3	16.5	19.0	-2.54	13.1	10.1	2.98
Michael Finley	60	59	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.01	12	-5	17	15.6	18.7	-3.12	13.4	11.5	1.91
Manu Ginobili	64	63	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.28	-2	9	-11	17.7	15.1	2.66	12.0	13.9	-1.93
Fabricio Oberto	21	21	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	1	5	18.5	16.4	2.16	12.3	12.8	-0.52
Jacque Vaughn	14	14	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	5	-3	19.0	16.5	2.54	10.1	13.1	-2.98
Francisco Elson	15	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	10	-13	16.7	16.8	-0.11	13.7	12.5	1.15
Robert Horry	46	47	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.34	-15	22	-37	17.8	16.0	1.84	11.6	13.7	-2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.35,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.56,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.97,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 83, HOU 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
MIA 89, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
OKC 93, ATL 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%