NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	9.2 [121]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +26.9%
Phoenix Suns	106		Comeback	2.0 [348]		LVP	Jacque Vaughn (SAS): -18.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.27	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.27,0.27	0.07	0.19	-0.01	24	52%	0.29	1	-0.03	15	60%	-0.00
Michael Finley	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2	0.09	0.12	0.01	11	70%	0.21	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.04
Robert Horry	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.09	0.00	5	83%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.08	-0.00	2	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.07	0.08	0.06	0.07	22	65%	0.29	6	-0.22	5	80%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	0.00	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.08
Brent Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.08	0.18	-0.00	12	62%	0.26	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.12	0.02	18	72%	0.40	3	-0.15	7	100%	0.06
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	19	41%	-0.10	1	-0.02	11	73%	0.02
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.14	0.00	17	47%	-0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.7	31.8	17.5	30.9	3.6	51.2	168.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +53.0%

PHX -10.3%

SAS +28.7%

PHX -23.9%

SAS +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	17.3	13.2	15.4	118.1	111.6	104.5
season	16.2	13.8		107.5	112.2
opponent	16.0	15.4		105.0	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	18.5	20.0	15.6	17.3
PHX	13.8	12.8	13.6	12.7	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	78	79	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.34	11	-6	17	17.1	18.2	-1.11	13.1	13.9	-0.77
Tony Parker	74	77	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.31	10	-5	15	16.0	22.0	-6.08	13.8	10.7	3.16
Bruce Bowen	51	54	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-2	9	16.9	17.7	-0.84	14.2	12.0	2.17
Michael Finley	72	72	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.01	12	-7	19	17.1	17.7	-0.60	12.8	14.5	-1.70
Robert Horry	53	55	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	5	-5	18.6	15.6	3.02	12.8	13.8	-0.98
Francisco Elson	29	27	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	-1	7	16.7	17.5	-0.88	14.5	12.7	1.75
Manu Ginobili	54	56	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.33	-6	11	-17	18.0	16.3	1.73	12.7	13.9	-1.17
Brent Barry	18	16	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	10	-15	15.2	17.8	-2.60	13.8	13.1	0.70
Jacque Vaughn	20	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	10	-15	22.0	16.0	6.08	10.7	13.8	-3.16
Fabricio Oberto	21	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	10	-15	16.8	17.4	-0.59	13.0	13.3	-0.24

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	23	24	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.02	7	-12	19	14.8	12.7	2.05	18.6	16.8	1.82
Boris Diaw	54	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-10	15	12.4	14.4	-2.04	16.2	18.5	-2.27
Leandro Barbosa	71	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.38	4	-9	13	12.5	15.5	-3.09	17.8	15.8	2.05
James Jones	17	17	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.09	-13	8	-21	15.5	12.7	2.73	15.7	17.6	-1.90
Raja Bell	88	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.34	-5	0	-5	13.4	11.0	2.41	17.0	21.1	-4.19
Steve Nash	62	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	7	-19	14.0	11.7	2.35	17.5	16.8	0.73
Shawn Marion	84	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	13.2	13.1	0.16	17.4	16.6	0.78
Amar'e Stoudemire	76	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.34	-7	2	-9	12.7	15.3	-2.54	17.4	16.6	0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.53,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 101, SEA 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.55,0.47,0.3,0.55,0.26,0	93.0%
MIA 76, HOU 73	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.25,0.37,0.22,0.09,0	92.1%
SAC 107, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.59,0.4,0.53,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.16,0	91.7%