NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	7.6 [314]		MVP	Jim Jackson (MIA): +37.8%
Houston Rockets	73		Comeback	1.6 [552]		LVP	Moochie Norris (HOU): -28.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0.38	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.38	-0.01	0.40	0.00	14	54%	0.47	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.07	0.01	8	67%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	8	37%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	67%	0.14	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Eddie Jones	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	20	43%	-0.05	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	10	27%	-0.12	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,0.11	0.11	-0.08	0.18	-0.02	18	44%	0.19	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.04
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tierre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.00	24	49%	-0.01	1	-0.08	5	40%	-0.06
Oscar Torres	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.09	-0.14	0.04	12	41%	-0.21	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.03
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.28	-0.28	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	11	26%	-0.16	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.6	25.0	16.6	25.4	2.5	34.2	127.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +74.3%

HOU -4.6%

HOU -10.1%

HOU -6.7%

HOU -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	15.1	18.5	15.6	89.4	84.9	102.3
season	16.5	16.8		96.6	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.8		106.4	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	13.5	16.0	16.8	15.1
HOU	17.8	19.8	18.2	18.3	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	35	33	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-4	11	15.3	15.0	0.29	18.4	18.6	-0.20
Jim Jackson	66	68	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.53	2	1	1	15.2	14.8	0.35	19.1	16.4	2.73
LaPhonso Ellis	48	48	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.55	-1	4	-5	15.9	14.1	1.74	19.1	17.9	1.21
Brian Grant	57	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	-1	5	14.8	15.7	-0.84	19.5	16.6	2.82
Rod Strickland	45	47	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	-1	5	14.7	15.6	-0.91	19.2	17.7	1.52
Alonzo Mourning	60	61	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	0	3	14.9	15.7	-0.80	17.0	22.4	-5.38
Eddie Jones	69	72	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	3	-3	15.0	15.8	-0.86	17.8	22.3	-4.47
Vladimir Stepania	5	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	3	-3	13.8	15.2	-1.40	21.8	18.3	3.45
Anthony Carter	40	38	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.04	-4	7	-11	15.6	14.7	0.91	18.2	18.9	-0.70

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Griffin	34	36	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.08	2	-5	7	17.9	18.9	-1.00	15.7	14.7	0.95
Terence Morris	22	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.06	-3	0	-3	19.8	18.1	1.71	13.5	15.6	-2.12
Tierre Brown	25	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.06	1	-4	5	18.2	18.7	-0.54	15.6	14.9	0.74
Kelvin Cato	7	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-1	-1	20.6	18.4	2.20	13.3	15.3	-2.00
Oscar Torres	83	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-4	5	18.5	19.0	-0.47	15.3	11.5	3.80
Kenny Thomas	71	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.44	0	-3	3	18.6	18.2	0.42	15.2	14.7	0.45
Moochie Norris	61	60	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.35	-4	1	-5	18.7	18.2	0.54	14.9	15.6	-0.74
Cuttino Mobley	78	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	0	-3	18.1	22.5	-4.36	15.4	12.1	3.24
Kevin Willis	49	48	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.46	-7	4	-11	18.7	18.4	0.30	14.8	15.5	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.25,0.37,0.22,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 103, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.47,0.55,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.36,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.15,0.09,0	92.9%
UTA 101, GSW 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.24,0.15,0.07,0.17,0	92.6%
NOH 100, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.01,0	92.3%