NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	101		Excitement	9.9 [61]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +43.7%
Seattle SuperSonics	99		Comeback	1.8 [367]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIL): -35.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.39	0.03	0.37	0.01	14	52%	0.39	0	0.00	3	100%	0.05
Ervin Johnson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	4	83%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Scott Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	65%	0.09	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.06	-0.02	16	57%	0.21	5	-0.20	10	80%	0.07
J.R. Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	12	58%	0.04	4	-0.17	7	71%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.35	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.35,-0.35	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	25	36%	-0.28	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.15,0.15,0.44	0.44	0.06	0.34	-0.04	23	54%	0.44	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	12	69%	0.10	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.07
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	4	70%	0.12	2	-0.15	2	100%	0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.09	-0.00	13	62%	0.05	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.08
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.11	0.00	3	43%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Chuck Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	7	21%	-0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.3	-0.30	-0.18	-0.13	-0.01	9	36%	-0.17	4	-0.12	10	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	73.2	1.6	30.2	15.6	25.3	1.6	35.2	182.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +0.7%

MIL +30.1%

MIL +23.9%

SEA -6.4%

MIL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SEA	NBA	MIL	SEA	NBA
this game	14.4	15.5	15.2	103.1	104.2	101.7
season	14.9	14.9		105.5	103.5
opponent	15.4	15.4		102.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.4	14.0	13.6	18.4	14.4
SEA	14.4	16.0	15.8	15.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	86	83	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-5	12	14.5	13.7	0.72	15.1	18.2	-3.07
Glenn Robinson	82	78	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-5	12	13.8	17.5	-3.73	15.2	16.9	-1.77
Sam Cassell	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	-3	8	13.0	19.3	-6.31	15.4	15.8	-0.45
Scott Williams	44	41	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.10	8	-6	14	15.2	13.7	1.58	16.1	15.0	1.12
Tim Thomas	60	60	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.41	-5	7	-12	15.3	12.9	2.34	15.5	15.4	0.09
Vinny Del Negro	34	32	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.46	-8	10	-18	16.8	13.1	3.75	16.2	15.1	1.11
Ervin Johnson	66	64	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	0	2	13.3	16.5	-3.15	15.8	14.8	1.01
J.R. Reid	13	13	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	5	-8	13.2	14.6	-1.41	13.2	15.8	-2.61
Danny Manning	15	15	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	6	-10	13.9	14.5	-0.52	16.0	15.4	0.61

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chuck Person	37	38	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.02	4	-6	10	16.2	15.0	1.15	16.1	13.3	2.74
Jelani McCoy	24	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-2	2	14.9	15.7	-0.76	15.1	14.1	0.99
Rashard Lewis	36	38	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-6	10	14.2	16.2	-1.99	15.9	13.4	2.56
Emanual Davis	20	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-6	10	14.6	15.7	-1.06	16.7	13.8	2.91
Greg Foster	29	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	7	-16	16.8	14.9	1.88	12.5	15.2	-2.71
Gary Payton	95	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	15.5	0.0	15.48	14.4	0.0	14.38
Ruben Patterson	78	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.51	0	-2	2	15.6	15.0	0.59	13.6	18.1	-4.53
Vin Baker	79	81	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.42	-5	3	-8	15.6	14.9	0.73	14.2	15.4	-1.25
Brent Barry	77	79	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.54	-6	4	-10	15.4	15.9	-0.50	13.7	17.1	-3.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.55,0.47,0.3,0.55,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 111, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.53,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.16,0	93.0%
TOR 97, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.46,0.33,0.26,0	91.5%
PHI 82, NJN 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.26,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.73,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.31,0	90.9%