NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	97		Excitement	7.1 [425]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +30.5%
Dallas Mavericks	85		Comeback	1.9 [188]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -27.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.30	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.16	0.19	0.04	20	69%	0.39	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.03
Stephen Jackson	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	18	61%	0.18	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	4	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Andris Biedrins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	-0.07	0.05	-0.02	12	46%	0.09	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Mickael Pietrus	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	7	39%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	14	23%	-0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.05	-0.02	14	52%	0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.00	18	47%	0.11	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Erick Dampier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	21	48%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	100%	-0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	16	35%	-0.09	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.20	-0.07	-0.00	6	0%	-0.12	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	3.4	30.5	20.4	28.4	3.3	33.6	147.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +49.3%

DAL -1.7%

DAL -10.6%

GSW +9.8%

GSW +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	13.7	17.6	15.4	104.3	93.4	104.5
season	13.5	16.3		105.7	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.2		102.3	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.2	14.8	12.2	18.7	13.7
DAL	17.5	19.5	18.0	15.6	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	50	48	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.17	20	-8	28	13.7	13.7	0.05	17.1	18.3	-1.15
Baron Davis	86	84	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.20	17	-5	22	13.7	14.0	-0.33	17.2	22.9	-5.64
Al Harrington	73	73	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.06	21	-9	30	13.4	14.9	-1.53	18.0	16.1	1.92
Stephen Jackson	88	85	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-3	18	13.5	16.6	-3.07	17.6	18.3	-0.73
Jason Richardson	81	77	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.20	9	3	6	14.0	11.8	2.14	17.3	19.5	-2.19
Andris Biedrins	14	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	15	-18	15.8	13.3	2.46	17.3	17.7	-0.40
Mickael Pietrus	29	29	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.04	-9	21	-30	14.4	13.4	1.04	17.9	17.5	0.41
Monta Ellis	44	46	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.02	-10	22	-32	13.0	14.4	-1.41	19.0	16.3	2.69

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	28	31	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.11	6	-18	24	16.7	18.1	-1.40	16.3	12.4	3.89
Erick Dampier	3	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-12	12	17.0	17.7	-0.67	18.7	13.5	5.13
Josh Howard	81	81	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-13	14	18.0	15.2	2.75	14.2	10.2	4.06
Jason Terry	66	68	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-11	10	18.4	15.7	2.71	14.9	10.5	4.35
Devean George	60	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	0	-12	18.4	16.3	2.11	12.9	15.1	-2.20
Greg Buckner	29	29	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-2	-8	16.7	18.1	-1.46	11.4	14.7	-3.37
Devin Harris	73	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	-4	-4	17.3	18.9	-1.62	13.2	15.8	-2.58
Jerry Stackhouse	40	43	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.01	-19	7	-26	16.7	18.4	-1.69	12.3	14.9	-2.64
Dirk Nowitzki	75	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.17	-17	5	-22	17.7	17.5	0.18	13.6	13.9	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.6,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.4,0.35,0.22,0.14,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 90, UTA 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.42,0.23,0.36,0.24,0.1,0.14,0.23,0.06,0.04,0	92.5%
CHI 98, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.03,0,0	92.4%
DAL 112, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.02,0	92.2%