NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	6.6 [447]		MVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): +19.3%
Detroit Pistons	91		Comeback	1.8 [236]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): -23.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.12	0.02	14	63%	0.27	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.04
Joakim Noah	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	7	61%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.09	0.00	16	50%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Duhon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	75%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.03
Ben Gordon	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	46%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	11	27%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	11	41%	-0.07	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.06	0.02	13	69%	0.25	2	-0.08	13	85%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	16	63%	0.17	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	3	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.06	-0.07	0.06	17	51%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	9	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	10	20%	-0.18	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.5	30.4	18.4	29.0	2.0	39.2	147.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +40.3%

CHI +10.3%

DET -5.3%

CHI +5.3%

DET -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	18.1	16.0	15.4	116.7	107.1	105.7
season	15.0	16.8		102.2	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	21.2	20.0	16.1	15.7	18.1
DET	15.9	16.0	15.9	16.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	75	74	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-5	17	18.3	15.9	2.44	15.9	16.9	-1.02
Luol Deng	69	69	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.25	12	-5	17	17.7	19.7	-1.94	16.0	16.2	-0.28
Chris Duhon	54	54	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-2	11	16.8	20.4	-3.67	16.1	15.8	0.29
Andres Nocioni	47	49	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.37	3	4	-1	16.5	20.0	-3.50	16.2	15.8	0.38
Joakim Noah	27	27	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	3	1	17.1	18.5	-1.42	18.2	15.0	3.17
Ben Wallace	64	63	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	6	-5	19.5	13.6	5.80	15.1	18.5	-3.40
Joe Smith	44	45	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.06	0	7	-7	19.2	16.8	2.43	16.2	15.8	0.47
Ben Gordon	40	44	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.05	-6	13	-19	18.9	17.3	1.63	15.7	16.3	-0.61

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	10	9	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-9	11	18.2	15.7	2.47	15.9	18.3	-2.44
Nazr Mohammed	12	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-7	7	21.5	15.1	6.38	12.5	18.9	-6.36
Lindsey Hunter	21	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-2	-3	15.7	16.1	-0.41	17.5	18.3	-0.84
Jason Maxiell	33	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-2	-3	15.8	16.2	-0.43	18.2	18.0	0.29
Tayshaun Prince	68	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-7	7	15.6	17.8	-2.25	18.0	18.5	-0.57
Jarvis Hayes	22	22	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	1	-9	15.7	16.1	-0.46	18.2	18.0	0.15
Rasheed Wallace	71	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-3	-1	15.2	20.4	-5.19	18.7	14.5	4.17
Chauncey Billups	64	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-5	3	16.1	15.7	0.41	18.3	17.5	0.84
Antonio McDyess	49	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-3	-1	16.9	14.9	2.02	18.4	17.6	0.85
Richard Hamilton	55	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.31	-3	-4	1	15.7	16.7	-0.99	17.4	19.5	-2.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, WAS 77	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.09,0,0	93.5%
CHI 109, MEM 107	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0	93.4%
LAC 92, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.18,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0	93.3%