NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	6.3 [524]		MVP	Robert Horry (SAS): +12.4%
Washington Wizards	77		Comeback	2.1 [705]		LVP	Ime Udoka (SAS): -15.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.10	-0.00	5	75%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	16	56%	0.15	3	-0.08	9	56%	-0.05
Damon Stoudamire	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	7	53%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Manu Ginobili	0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.03	0.02	8	47%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.05	-0.04	5	8%	-0.06	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andray Blatche	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	14	52%	0.11	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	14	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.04
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	13	41%	0.05	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	9	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Oleksiy Pecherov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	8	47%	-0.00	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	0.04	8	37%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	26.8	15.0	26.2	2.5	33.5	128.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +67.2%

WAS -13.5%

WAS -6.0%

SAS +1.2%

SAS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	WAS	NBA	SAS	WAS	NBA
this game	16.8	18.1	15.4	102.4	93.9	105.7
season	16.5	16.1		104.7	106.8
opponent	15.5	15.3		107.4	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.4	17.6	15.1	16.2	16.8
WAS	20.6	16.7	16.9	18.9	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	62	61	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.26	12	-4	16	16.4	18.0	-1.65	17.8	19.2	-1.47
Robert Horry	32	33	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-4	16	16.4	17.0	-0.59	18.5	17.9	0.57
Fabricio Oberto	53	52	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.26	8	0	8	16.8	16.8	0.01	18.2	18.0	0.18
Jacque Vaughn	43	44	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	-3	14	16.1	17.4	-1.31	18.2	18.1	0.03
Michael Finley	36	36	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-1	10	17.2	16.5	0.70	19.2	17.3	1.97
Bruce Bowen	47	47	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	5	-2	17.6	15.6	2.00	17.9	18.5	-0.64
Damon Stoudamire	40	38	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.17	-3	11	-14	17.4	16.1	1.31	18.1	18.2	-0.03
Tim Duncan	61	61	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	9	-10	17.8	13.9	3.89	18.1	18.1	0.00
Francisco Elson	11	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	11	-14	14.4	17.1	-2.78	18.8	18.1	0.74
Ime Udoka	30	28	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.01	-8	16	-24	15.0	17.8	-2.83	17.2	18.6	-1.36

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Young	12	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-8	8	20.5	17.7	2.76	15.9	16.9	-1.01
Brendan Haywood	58	57	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-7	6	17.9	18.7	-0.79	18.0	14.0	3.98
DeShawn Stevenson	59	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-7	6	18.1	18.3	-0.16	16.9	16.5	0.32
Darius Songaila	36	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-6	4	18.0	18.3	-0.31	15.5	17.7	-2.24
Oleksiy Pecherov	16	18	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-5	2	18.7	18.0	0.67	15.8	17.0	-1.27
Roger Mason Jr.	37	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-5	2	17.7	18.5	-0.86	16.7	16.8	-0.11
Andray Blatche	56	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.09	-10	2	-12	18.8	16.7	2.19	16.9	16.5	0.45
Antawn Jamison	74	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	1	-10	17.7	22.1	-4.41	16.9	15.9	0.99
Antonio Daniels	62	64	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.26	-11	3	-14	18.1	18.3	-0.27	16.5	17.6	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.09,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0	94.2%
NJN 112, WAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.11,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
POR 106, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.26,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	93.6%