NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	106		Excitement	5.6 [713]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): +21.5%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	2.0 [253]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -16.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.13	0.09	0.01	12	67%	0.22	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Rudy Fernandez	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	10	64%	0.19	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Steve Blake	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.14	-0.02	0.08	8	74%	0.04	0	0.00	11	91%	-0.01
Brandon Roy	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.01	22	52%	0.04	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	17	47%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	58%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.19	-0.06	0.11	21	65%	0.04	1	-0.02	12	75%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	11	69%	0.12	4	-0.09	20	65%	-0.08
Anthony Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	9	60%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	11	27%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	12	38%	-0.05	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	1.8	31.4	16.4	28.4	2.5	44.4	153.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +27.5%

POR +5.8%

ORL -11.1%

POR +26.8%

POR +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	ORL	NBA	POR	ORL	NBA
this game	17.0	13.9	15.5	114.0	106.5	106.4
season	16.7	15.3		111.0	107.3
opponent	15.8	16.0		101.4	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.0	18.3	19.0	14.5	17.0
ORL	13.0	16.0	15.2	12.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	71	71	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.25	17	-10	27	16.9	17.6	-0.73	13.3	16.0	-2.76
Rudy Fernandez	63	63	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-5	17	16.7	17.7	-0.94	14.3	13.2	1.09
Sergio Rodriguez	30	29	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	-2	11	16.5	17.3	-0.74	16.3	12.9	3.40
Travis Outlaw	82	80	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	6	-5	16.9	17.9	-0.99	13.7	15.4	-1.68
Channing Frye	27	28	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	2	3	16.6	17.2	-0.57	16.1	13.0	3.16
Brandon Roy	74	72	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	2	3	17.6	14.8	2.75	14.0	13.9	0.10
Steve Blake	65	65	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.14	-4	11	-15	16.9	17.3	-0.36	13.0	16.0	-3.00
Joel Przybilla	16	17	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	7	-7	19.2	16.6	2.60	15.2	13.6	1.59
Nicolas Batum	37	40	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.18	-10	17	-27	17.0	17.1	-0.10	12.6	14.9	-2.26

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	61	63	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.25	8	-15	23	12.8	16.2	-3.43	17.4	16.2	1.23
Rashard Lewis	78	78	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.19	5	-12	17	13.5	16.1	-2.62	16.9	17.5	-0.52
Tony Battie	15	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-3	-1	16.7	13.4	3.34	16.9	17.1	-0.21
Mickael Pietrus	30	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-4	1	13.7	14.0	-0.30	18.9	16.1	2.81
Courtney Lee	26	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.13	-13	6	-19	14.8	13.6	1.21	16.2	17.3	-1.05
Dwight Howard	78	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-4	1	13.4	16.7	-3.34	17.1	16.9	0.21
Hedo Turkoglu	82	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-3	-1	13.8	14.8	-1.00	17.0	17.2	-0.15
Anthony Johnson	30	29	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	7	-21	17.1	12.4	4.62	16.6	17.2	-0.60
Keith Bogans	65	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	0	-7	14.0	13.8	0.21	16.3	18.6	-2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.26,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, WAS 77	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.09,0,0	93.6%
NOH 92, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.11,0.16,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.2%
LAL 102, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.48,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	93.1%