NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	97		Excitement	7.9 [271]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +28.8%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	5.1 [323]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): -17.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.29	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.29	0.14	0.14	-0.00	12	74%	0.33	2	-0.04	10	100%	0.08
Richard Hamilton	0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,0.18	0.00	0.19	0.01	13	59%	0.28	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Rasheed Wallace	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.12	-0.00	9	54%	0.17	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Tayshaun Prince	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	7	72%	0.23	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Carlos Delfino	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Dale Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.16	6	17%	-0.07
Antonio McDyess	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	0.00	10	20%	-0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.09,-0.01,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	12	48%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	52%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	15	62%	0.23	5	-0.22	17	53%	-0.11
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.08	-0.01	8	77%	0.17	4	-0.21	6	50%	-0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	0.02	10	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	13	23%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	3.5	32.0	18.0	31.1	2.8	41.2	158.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +46.7%

DET +20.1%

ORL -27.5%

DET +10.7%

DET +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.6	15.4	109.0	104.5	104.5
season	16.8	15.9		106.1	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.0	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.0	14.1	17.6	16.6	16.8
ORL	12.9	16.5	16.0	16.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	66	64	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.48	13	-9	22	17.2	15.7	1.56	14.8	17.5	-2.68
Chris Webber	64	65	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-7	18	17.3	15.6	1.63	15.7	15.1	0.64
Chauncey Billups	85	85	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.35	6	-2	8	16.8	17.0	-0.20	15.4	19.2	-3.87
Richard Hamilton	63	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	2	0	17.1	16.0	1.14	15.0	16.9	-1.88
Tayshaun Prince	71	70	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.40	0	4	-4	17.5	14.1	3.38	15.2	16.7	-1.51
Carlos Delfino	21	21	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	1	2	12.3	18.2	-5.92	15.4	15.6	-0.16
Ronald Murray	30	30	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	4	-4	16.1	17.2	-1.02	17.2	14.7	2.49
Dale Davis	10	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.07	-3	7	-10	15.5	17.0	-1.47	16.1	15.5	0.62
Antonio McDyess	35	37	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	-0.05	-12	16	-28	16.9	16.7	0.17	17.1	14.5	2.62

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	39	38	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.00	1	-5	6	16.1	15.1	0.94	14.6	18.5	-3.94
Tony Battie	24	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-1	-2	14.5	15.9	-1.38	19.6	15.8	3.86
JJ Redick	21	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-3	2	17.3	15.0	2.33	14.1	17.6	-3.55
Trevor Ariza	23	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	2	-8	16.6	15.2	1.43	14.8	17.5	-2.64
Darko Milicic	66	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.48	3	-7	10	16.0	14.3	1.62	15.8	19.7	-3.83
Grant Hill	68	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.35	-2	-2	0	15.0	17.4	-2.46	17.4	14.8	2.68
Dwight Howard	78	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-3	2	15.7	14.7	0.94	17.8	9.5	8.29
Hedo Turkoglu	74	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.29	-7	3	-10	15.4	16.3	-0.94	16.9	16.3	0.65
Jameer Nelson	52	54	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.41	-4	0	-4	14.7	16.7	-2.02	17.8	15.3	2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.74,0.7,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.3,0.41,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.55,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 110, UTA 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.41,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.4,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.42,0	92.2%
BOS 110, ATL 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.59,0.46,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.47,0.62,0.54,0.67,0.27,0	91.1%
NYK 102, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.35,0.44,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.72,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.17,0	89.8%