NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	4.7 [880]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +15.1%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	1.2 [1209]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -14.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.13	-0.02	0.04	14	79%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.02	8	44%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Grant Hill	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	10	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	13	69%	-0.03
Keyon Dooling	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	71%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	9	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Jameer Nelson	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	12	33%	-0.09	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.03	0.04	9	38%	-0.05	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.05	0.03	12	70%	0.16	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.01	13	64%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	15	57%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.06	14	52%	0.03	0	0.00	14	86%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	53%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.04	11	32%	-0.04	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.8	35.2	20.6	29.1	2.8	40.0	158.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +28.9%

DET +5.6%

DET +5.5%

DET +9.7%

DET +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	17.5	17.6	15.4	109.8	119.5	104.5
season	15.9	16.8		103.4	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.7		101.7	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	18.4	16.2	19.0	16.3	17.5
DET	15.9	19.8	17.0	18.0	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	34	33	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.05	3	-11	14	16.5	18.2	-1.76	18.4	17.1	1.29
Darko Milicic	48	48	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.30	10	-18	28	16.4	19.1	-2.76	18.3	16.6	1.67
Keyon Dooling	21	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-5	2	18.6	17.1	1.50	18.6	17.3	1.32
Trevor Ariza	23	22	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.13	-13	5	-18	19.1	16.9	2.27	19.1	17.1	2.01
Tony Battie	47	46	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	1	-10	18.0	16.9	1.07	16.4	19.1	-2.70
Grant Hill	66	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-5	2	17.1	19.2	-2.10	17.1	19.8	-2.72
Hedo Turkoglu	63	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-2	-4	17.0	19.2	-2.16	17.5	17.9	-0.43
Jameer Nelson	50	51	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	2	-12	18.2	16.5	1.69	16.5	19.5	-3.05
Dwight Howard	58	60	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.32	-9	1	-10	18.1	16.1	1.94	18.3	15.7	2.65

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	61	60	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.10	19	-11	30	17.2	18.8	-1.53	18.2	15.5	2.73
Richard Hamilton	77	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.23	14	-6	20	17.3	22.2	-4.88	17.8	14.0	3.78
Rasheed Wallace	65	63	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	-5	18	17.2	19.1	-1.89	17.5	17.5	0.03
Chauncey Billups	71	73	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-2	12	16.9	22.4	-5.48	17.5	17.8	-0.31
Antonio McDyess	56	55	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.34	-3	11	-14	17.9	17.0	0.91	16.9	18.8	-1.91
Chris Webber	42	45	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	2	4	18.2	17.0	1.26	18.5	16.3	2.14
Ronald Murray	12	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	9	-10	21.8	16.9	4.93	17.5	17.5	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	4	3	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	15	-22	23.7	17.3	6.44	11.3	17.7	-6.40
Carlos Delfino	22	23	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	19	-30	18.0	17.5	0.45	15.2	18.4	-3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.89,0.89,0.84,0.92,0.84,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 87, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
CLE 113, GSW 132	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.77,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
NYK 95, ORL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,1,1	94.8%