NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	92		Excitement	4.1 [999]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +11.1%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	1.0 [1267]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -11.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darko Milicic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.05	6	74%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	53%	0.03	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	13	63%	0.07	4	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.00	0.01	0.03	8	58%	0.03	3	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	8	48%	0.03	6	-0.14	11	27%	-0.10

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.01	12	62%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	19	50%	0.10	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.03	-0.03	7	60%	0.11	2	-0.01	6	67%	-0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	13	58%	0.10	5	-0.08	12	92%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.5	31.4	18.7	36.0	2.8	41.2	160.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +15.0%

DET +13.6%

ORL -3.2%

DET +25.2%

ORL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	15.4	16.8	15.4	103.4	111.1	104.5
season	15.9	16.8		103.4	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.7		101.7	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	13.8	17.5	14.4	15.4
DET	15.5	18.1	15.2	18.4	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	14	16	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.09	4	-12	16	11.7	16.1	-4.35	17.1	16.7	0.33
Darko Milicic	51	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.31	7	-15	22	14.1	17.1	-2.92	17.6	15.7	1.84
Keyon Dooling	34	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	-6	4	14.7	15.8	-1.14	16.6	16.9	-0.24
Carlos Arroyo	25	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-8	8	16.4	15.0	1.36	19.2	15.8	3.39
Jameer Nelson	56	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-3	-2	15.6	15.0	0.56	16.9	16.7	0.21
Tony Battie	42	44	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	6	-20	17.3	13.7	3.56	16.3	17.2	-0.88
Grant Hill	63	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.16	-9	1	-10	15.2	15.8	-0.66	15.8	19.1	-3.27
Hedo Turkoglu	77	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	0	-8	15.7	13.2	2.46	16.6	17.8	-1.15
Dwight Howard	83	82	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.18	-13	5	-18	15.5	13.7	1.84	16.6	18.4	-1.74

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	78	76	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.11	18	-10	28	16.2	20.4	-4.19	15.3	15.9	-0.63
Rasheed Wallace	67	66	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.12	14	-6	20	16.0	19.1	-3.09	16.3	12.8	3.45
Richard Hamilton	83	82	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	0	8	16.5	19.7	-3.17	15.2	17.3	-2.07
Tayshaun Prince	71	69	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.15	8	0	8	15.9	20.0	-4.07	15.8	13.8	2.04
Chris Webber	60	60	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	4	0	17.1	16.2	0.88	15.6	14.9	0.67
Antonio McDyess	36	37	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	2	4	17.1	16.6	0.44	15.1	15.6	-0.47
Carlos Delfino	26	27	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	8	-8	19.9	15.5	4.41	14.7	15.7	-0.97
Dale Davis	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	10	-12	18.3	16.6	1.72	11.5	15.8	-4.27
Jason Maxiell	8	7	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.07	-6	14	-20	18.2	16.6	1.60	11.0	15.8	-4.76
Lindsey Hunter	12	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.16	-10	18	-28	20.4	16.2	4.19	15.9	15.3	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,0.99,0.96,0.99,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 84, NOH 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
TOR 99, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	96.0%
PHI 88, DET 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%