NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	101		Excitement	6.1 [606]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +47.9%
Dallas Mavericks	117		Comeback	2.6 [738]		LVP	Steve Nash (PHX): -12.5%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.24	0.10	-0.03	14	87%	0.37	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.08	0.01	13	74%	0.22	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	12	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
James Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	14	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Raja Bell	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	5	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.03	17	47%	-0.05	3	-0.07	9	100%	0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.39,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48	0.48	0.32	0.25	0.09	26	71%	0.50	1	-0.02	18	94%	0.10
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.04	0.04	15	68%	0.17	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	43%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	18	42%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	13	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.9	3.5	32.5	20.3	25.6	3.8	36.4	152.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +12.3%

DAL +3.1%

DAL +16.0%

DAL +7.0%

DAL +11.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DAL	NBA	PHX	DAL	NBA
this game	13.4	17.9	15.6	109.8	127.2	104.4
season	13.8	16.4		110.2	109.0
opponent	15.6	16.1		102.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.7	13.0	16.2	12.0	13.4
DAL	15.0	19.7	19.0	18.5	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raja Bell	55	57	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-18	20	13.8	12.8	0.99	17.6	18.4	-0.76
Eddie House	21	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.13	-7	-9	2	10.5	14.3	-3.79	19.2	17.5	1.73
Steve Nash	74	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.02	-9	-7	-2	13.8	11.6	2.23	18.0	17.6	0.34
James Jones	27	26	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-8	0	13.3	13.4	-0.15	17.5	18.0	-0.51
Shawn Marion	75	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	-3	-10	13.1	14.6	-1.45	17.4	20.2	-2.84
Tim Thomas	80	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	-3	-10	13.6	12.2	1.42	18.0	17.4	0.64
Leandro Barbosa	54	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.01	-18	2	-20	13.2	13.7	-0.57	18.8	16.6	2.14
Boris Diaw	74	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.23	-14	-2	-12	13.8	11.8	1.95	17.6	19.3	-1.71

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	85	86	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.10	22	-6	28	17.4	24.3	-6.91	13.3	14.5	-1.17
DeSagana Diop	57	56	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	6	4	17.7	18.2	-0.53	13.9	12.7	1.16
Josh Howard	59	61	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.01	15	1	14	18.1	17.5	0.60	13.6	13.0	0.66
Jason Terry	65	67	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.06	17	-1	18	17.2	19.6	-2.39	13.3	13.7	-0.38
Jerry Stackhouse	74	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.13	18	-2	20	18.4	16.1	2.30	13.0	14.9	-1.92
Devin Harris	35	34	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.22	-2	18	-20	18.9	17.3	1.63	14.1	13.0	1.18
Adrian Griffin	43	43	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.26	13	3	10	19.1	16.8	2.32	13.5	13.3	0.16
Keith Van Horn	29	30	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.06	-1	17	-18	17.4	18.1	-0.71	13.2	13.5	-0.35
Josh Powell	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	15.0	18.0	-2.97	12.0	13.4	-1.42
Marquis Daniels	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	15.0	18.0	-2.97	12.0	13.4	-1.42
Darrell Armstrong	9	7	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	22	-28	17.1	18.0	-0.88	11.0	13.6	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 78, CHH 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.85,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.96,1,1	93.3%
DET 98, GSW 105	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.47,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.86,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.3%
NYK 102, CHI 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.88,0.95,0.79,1,0.96,1	92.9%