NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	118		Excitement	11.1 [42]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +43.2%
Dallas Mavericks	123		Comeback	9.2 [204]		LVP	Josh Howard (DAL): -11.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.23	0.16	0.00	11	93%	0.41	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.06
Michael Finley	0.36	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.36	0.06	0.30	-0.01	10	64%	0.54	1	-0.18	2	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	6	42%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.05	-0.01	23	57%	0.19	3	-0.15	8	87%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	23	55%	0.10	5	-0.13	14	64%	-0.05
Brent Barry	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	4	62%	0.06	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.26,0.38,0.43	0.43	0.11	0.30	-0.02	25	57%	0.47	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.09
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.15	0.17	-0.01	19	62%	0.33	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	6	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.08	0.01	12	72%	0.28	6	-0.17	15	93%	0.25
Devin Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	10	69%	0.21	3	-0.14	6	67%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	4	33%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	13	31%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	29.8	3.5	36.4	19.7	34.0	4.0	46.0	2.4	14.4	190.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -51.8%

DAL +45.5%

DAL +24.8%

DAL +32.4%

SAS -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.1	16.0	15.6	115.7	120.6	104.4
season	16.3	16.4		106.0	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.9	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.6	18.0	13.2	14.5	13.5	15.1
DAL	18.0	12.7	17.5	16.8	15.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	48	49	0.39	-0.89	1.28	0.16	8	-13	21	15.8	14.6	1.20	17.6	14.6	3.07
Rasho Nesterovic	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-5	5	0.0	15.1	-15.14	0.0	16.2	-16.20
Nick Van Exel	15	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-1	-3	15.9	15.0	0.86	13.5	16.5	-3.01
Tim Duncan	88	90	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.36	6	-11	17	15.5	13.1	2.31	16.1	15.8	0.23
Robert Horry	21	18	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	6	-17	14.2	15.4	-1.19	14.9	16.3	-1.40
Tony Parker	87	86	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-4	3	15.0	15.9	-0.86	16.5	13.5	3.01
Michael Finley	91	91	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	15.3	14.1	1.17	15.5	20.1	-4.54
Bruce Bowen	84	84	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.33	-9	4	-13	15.2	15.0	0.17	16.3	14.6	1.73
Brent Barry	76	75	-0.89	0.39	-1.27	-0.56	-11	6	-17	14.4	17.2	-2.71	15.7	17.0	-1.26

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	77	78	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.49	12	-7	19	15.8	16.7	-0.85	15.4	14.4	1.00
Jerry Stackhouse	76	73	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.40	14	-9	23	15.8	16.7	-0.93	15.1	15.3	-0.29
Jason Terry	98	99	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-6	17	15.9	19.2	-3.34	15.1	17.0	-1.92
Dirk Nowitzki	89	88	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.34	3	2	1	16.2	14.9	1.28	15.4	13.2	2.23
Erick Dampier	69	67	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	1	3	16.3	15.6	0.69	15.7	14.0	1.69
Marquis Daniels	18	20	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	-1	7	13.9	16.5	-2.54	13.0	15.7	-2.66
DeSagana Diop	24	26	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.19	-10	15	-25	15.5	16.2	-0.71	15.2	15.1	0.13
Josh Howard	59	59	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	0.02	-15	20	-35	17.2	14.5	2.72	14.6	15.9	-1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.32,0.15,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.69,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 96, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.15,0.1,0.42,0.54,0.69,0.86,0.95,1,1	91.1%
LAL 104, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.1,0.1,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.95,0.84,1	90.8%
GSW 92, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.17,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.97,1,1	90.3%