NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	97		Excitement	9.4 [108]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +78.8%
Washington Wizards	96		Comeback	5.8 [117]		LVP	Antonio Daniels (WAS): -21.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.79	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.19,0.26,0.79	0.17	0.63	0.01	28	63%	0.90	4	-0.12	9	67%	-0.03
Larry Hughes	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.08	0.00	15	47%	0.14	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Damon Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	12	47%	0.02	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Anderson Varejao	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Eric Snow	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	3	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	6	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	8	22%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.27	0.27	0.01	0.24	-0.02	25	56%	0.44	6	-0.16	11	73%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.01	16	56%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	69%	0.09	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	13	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	43%	-0.01	1	-0.04	6	33%	-0.07
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.21	-0.21	0.02	-0.23	0.00	5	73%	0.07	3	-0.28	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	3.6	31.6	19.5	30.2	4.5	48.5	167.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +14.0%

WAS -1.6%

CLE +13.3%

CLE +35.8%

WAS -11.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	WAS	NBA	CLE	WAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.1	15.6	103.2	102.1	104.4
season	16.2	15.1		105.6	107.4
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.5	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.7	15.5	15.1	17.2	15.6
WAS	12.0	15.8	17.6	15.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anderson Varejao	26	26	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.70	2	-1	3	13.1	16.5	-3.47	12.7	16.0	-3.26
Larry Hughes	80	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	-2	5	15.3	17.1	-1.75	15.1	14.8	0.30
Eric Snow	73	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.47	2	-1	3	15.5	15.7	-0.17	15.1	15.0	0.07
LeBron James	93	93	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	0	1	15.8	0.0	15.75	15.0	22.0	-7.02
Ronald Murray	25	25	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.51	-4	5	-9	14.5	16.0	-1.45	15.5	14.9	0.64
Donyell Marshall	54	54	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-4	9	16.7	14.1	2.54	15.3	14.7	0.53
Damon Jones	13	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	0	1	16.8	15.4	1.37	14.4	15.2	-0.82
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	57	58	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.05	-2	3	-5	16.6	14.0	2.66	16.2	13.2	3.06
Drew Gooden	49	50	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.13	-3	4	-7	14.9	16.3	-1.44	14.7	15.5	-0.80

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	53	54	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.08	-1	0	-1	15.3	14.8	0.53	16.7	14.0	2.67
Antawn Jamison	82	82	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.22	9	-10	19	14.8	17.0	-2.23	15.2	18.2	-2.96
Michael Ruffin	33	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	0	-1	14.8	15.2	-0.36	15.9	15.4	0.47
Antonio Daniels	60	60	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	0	-1	15.5	14.3	1.24	16.1	14.6	1.56
Caron Butler	91	91	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.45	-2	1	-3	15.0	18.0	-3.04	15.4	20.0	-4.56
Gilbert Arenas	90	90	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.48	-5	4	-9	15.3	10.5	4.76	15.5	16.7	-1.22
Jared Jeffries	61	62	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.61	-4	3	-7	14.8	15.6	-0.81	14.7	17.3	-2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.83,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 83, PHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.76,0.71,0	90.6%
LAL 111, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.67,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.55,0.84,0	90.5%
IND 110, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.69,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.71,0.73,0	90.4%